Marty Niland: It's far from panic time for Nats fans

From the sense of panic among Nationals fans these days, you would think the team is in last place, rather than on a pace to win more than 90 games.

Let's calm down and let general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dusty Baker do their jobs. It's far too early for predictions of collapse.

After Trea Turner broke his wrist, joining previous leadoff man Adam Eaton on the disabled list, Nats fans on Twitter started posting messages of gloom and doom. Perhaps the best was, "Leading off the the Nats is as dangerous as playing drums for Spinal Tap." (For those unfamiliar with the fictional band, its history includes a series of drummers who suffered mysterious deaths, including two from spontaneous combustion).

A close friend and astute fan tells me Washington is "cursed" and will never see another championship, and my own son says the team is "doomed" and is speculating on which players should be traded.

Enough already.

Let's look objectively at the Nationals' problems. They're without a proven leadoff hitter, and have not had a reliable closer all year. No. 4 starting pitcher Tanner Roark is struggling mightily, and No. 5 starter Joe Ross has been inconsistent.

Now let's look at their strengths. Max Scherzer (1.94) and Gio Gonzalez (2.77) have two of the top three ERAs in the National League and two of the top six in all of baseball. Stephen Strasburg (3.51) is No. 12 in the NL. All three also rank in the NL's top 10 for strikeouts.

On offense, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper all have among the NL's top 10 batting averages, and Anthony Rendon is closing in on .300. All have more than 50 RBIs, with Zimmerman on pace to drive in 120. Harper and Murphy are also among the top 10 in runs scored.

The answer to the Nats' leadoff problem will come when Jayson Werth returns to the lineup after the All-Star break. His on-base percentage this season is .367, better than Turner's .324. In 2012, when the Nats won 98 games to lead all of baseball, Werth was the Nats' leadoff man down the stretch, with a .309 average and a .388 OBP. His 2012 season also offers hope for those of us concerned about Turner's injury. He missed half the season after breaking a wrist and having surgery. He still returned to lead the Nats down the stretch and hit the most memorable home run in team history in the postseason.

Rizzo will fix the bullpen. He's not dealing right now because other teams aren't ready to deal. Every team in the American League is within seven games of a wild card spot. None of those teams will be trading until just before the deadline, and even then only if they think they can improve.

That means Rizzo will likely overpay for a closer, and it may cost players from the major league roster. Felipe Rivero was traded last season when the Nats needed a closer. But the team does have depth, and it may hurt at first to see a familiar face go, but it will likely be worth it if Rizzo can get someone who can nail down the ninth inning.

Roark's mechanical issues may never work themselves out, but Ross seems to have found some consistency in the past few weeks.

Most teams have only one starting pitcher who is as good as the Nats' top three. Their pitching, and a lineup whose Nos. 3-6 hitters are as fearsome as any in baseball, will get them through a weak NL East. After that, we know anything can happen.

Nats fans may have to deal with a familiar player departing to save the bullpen, and the team may not have a home-field advantage in the postseason. That doesn't seem to have helped them in the past anyway.

It's far too soon to worry about a collapse, though, and Rizzo and Baker are the guys who get paid to worry about such things. Let's let them do their jobs and enjoy a team that has been among the best in baseball for five years.

Marty Niland blogs about the Nationals for D.C. Baseball History. Follow him on Twitter: @martyball98. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.