Nats will start Roark in Game 4, won't start Strasburg on short rest

CHICAGO - Unless something really unexpected happens today, Tanner Roark will start Game 4 of the National League Division Series on Tuesday. No matter what happens between now and then, Stephen Strasburg will not be starting that game.

The Nationals revealed their rotation plans for the remainder of their series against the Cubs, and it's exactly what was expected to be the case all along, with Roark serving as the club's fourth starter and Strasburg held back from returning to pitch again too soon following his Game 1 gem.

Win or lose this afternoon in Game 3 at Wrigley Field, the Nats will give the ball to Roark on Tuesday ... with one wrinkle.

"If he's needed (in Game 3), to play an extra-inning game, then you have to make an adjustment from there," manager Dusty Baker said Sunday afternoon. "You know, we can assume, and that's our plan because he's going to throw a bullpen today."

Emotions will be running high for Roark, who grew up in nearby Wilmington, Ill., and counts many Cubs fans among his family and friends.

The right-hander also has pitched quite well inside the Friendly Confines over the years. In four career starts at Wrigley, he's 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA. That includes his Aug. 4 win over the Cubs here, when he allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings.

And that fell right in the middle of Roark's second-half resurgence following a difficult first half to his season. Owner of a 5.27 ERA at the All-Star break, he proceeded to go 7-4 with a 3.24 ERA in next 11 starts, bearing far more resemblance to the pitcher who was a trusted member of the Nats rotation the last four seasons.

"That's what pros do," pitching coach Mike Maddux said. "You understand it's a body of work over the course of the season. And there's going to be peaks and valleys. He never got down. He battled through it. Confidence is a great thing. It's the old chicken or the egg. Once he got on a roll, he got back to what we've seen and why we love him and why we trust him. He's been pretty darn good in the second half of the season."

Roark did hit a bump in the road near the end of the regular season, allowing eight runs in 5 2/3 innings among a pair of outings against the Phillies and Pirates. That, along with his overall season numbers - 13-11, 4.67 ERA - has left some wondering if the Nationals might bypass Roark's rotation slot altogether and bring back Strasburg to start Game 4 on short rest.

Maddux put a halt to those thoughts when asked Sunday about the possibility.

"No," the pitching coach said. "Stras has never done it. We're not going to experiment at this point."

History suggests teams should be more hesitant to bring back guys on short rest in October. According to research by Bleacher Report, pitchers were asked to start a postseason game on fewer than four days' rest 54 times from 2000-13. Those pitchers wound up with a 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, with their teams going 20-34.

Thus, Strasburg will remain on course to start a potential do-or-die Game 5 at Nationals Park (with both Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer expected to be available out of the bullpen).