Orioles still have arbitration work to do

A new week is beginning and another important baseball date is approaching.

Friday is the deadline for teams to reach agreements on contracts with their arbitration-eligible players before the sides exchange salary figures. Hearings are scheduled between Jan. 29 and Feb. 16 in Scottsdale, Ariz.

The non-tender deadline passed on Nov. 17 with the Orioles signing shortstop Jorge Mateo for $2.7 million, left-hander Keegan Akin for $825,000 and outfielders Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard for $800,000.

The other 13 eligible players were tendered contracts. The Orioles went 17-for-17 to shock prognosticators like me who practically guaranteed at least one non-tender. Guys sitting on the bubble didn’t burst it.

At the risk of shattering the record for the most rehashed numbers, here are the MLBTradeRumors projected raises:

Anthony Santander: $7.4 million to $12.7 million
Danny Coulombe: $1 million to $2.2 million
John Means: $2.975 million to $5.93 million
Ryan O’Hearn: $1.4 million to $3 million
Cedric Mullins: $4.1 million to $6.4 million
Austin Hays: $3.2 million to $6.1 million
Dillon Tate: $1.5 million to $1.5 million
Ryan Mountcastle: $738,400 to $4.2 million
Cionel Pérez: $732,300 to $1.3 million
Cole Irvin: $737,600 to $1.8 million
Jacob Webb: $720,000 to $1.2 million
Ramón Urías: $734,700 to $2 million
Tyler Wells: $732,400 to $2.3 million

Santander lost his arbitration case in February 2021, when a three-person panel awarded him the $2.1 million offered by the Orioles instead of the $2.475 million figure that his agent filed. He’s the only player who’s gone to a hearing since Mike Elias was hired in November 2018 as executive vice president/general manager.

Santander, Mullins, Hays, Mateo and Tate agreed to terms in January 2023, and Austin Voth signed later in the month for $1.85 million. The right-hander’s contract included a club option, but the Orioles outrighted him in September and he’s a free agent.

The Orioles believe in the file-and-go approach, but Voth, first baseman Trey Mancini and starter John Means have signed past the deadline to avoid their hearings.

Backup catcher Caleb Joseph lost in 2017 after failing to record an RBI in 141 plate appearances, but reliever Brad Brach posted a rare win, receiving $3.05 million instead of $2.525 million. The Orioles hadn’t lost in 22 years, a nine-hearing streak that began after Ben McDonald won in 1995.

Maybe they can go 13-for-13 this year with their remaining unresolved contract situations. I refuse to doubt them anymore. Negotiations can continue past Friday, as proven by Means, Mancini and Voth.

Free agency is right around the corner for Santander, but first, his next raise. It’s gonna be a beaut.

His 28 home runs tied Gunnar Henderson for the team lead, and his 95 RBIs were 13 more than the American League’s Rookie of the Year. His 152 hits, 55 walks, .257 average and .797 OPS ranked third on the club, and he slugged .472 to trail only Henderson.

Trade speculation hounds Santander every offseason. The growing salary, the chip status, the prospects on deck, and the final year before he hits the market. But Elias has been hesitant to part with a big bat and punch a big hole in the middle of the lineup.

Tate didn’t pitch in 2023 due to forearm and elbow injuries, so the projection that his salary will hold at $1.5 million makes sense on the surface. Means made four starts after returning from Tommy John surgery and a strained muscle in his upper back that delayed his return, but he’s still projected to receive a nice bump in pay.

Two guys who are hugely important to the Orioles in 2024.

The 2022 version of Tate makes a good bullpen potentially a dominant one. Means is a major in-house rotation upgrade if the Orioles get a full season out of him, which they anticipate happening. He's got No. 1 stuff. He's obviously got no-hit stuff. Slot him anywhere and he's impactful, along with being a clubhouse leader.

First-time eligible guys Mountcastle, Pérez, Irvin, Webb, Urías and Wells are lined up for big paydays, with Mountcastle benefiting the most despite two trips to the injured list that limited him to 115 games.