Ryan Romano: Just how good is Brad Brach?

Heading into the season, everyone knew that the Orioles would rely heavily upon their relief corps. Thus far, the group has had some ups and downs. Darren O'Day has an ERA above 3.00 for the first time since 2011, and his trip to the disabled list has prevented him from improving on that. Mychal Givens has a high ERA as well, albeit an unlucky one. And the supporting cast....to put it lightly, they haven't really supported. Thanks to Zach Britton and Brad Brach, though, the bullpen has fared well overall: Those two own ERAs of 0.80 and 1.01, respectively, making the team's relievers, as a whole, the sixth-best in the majors.

We know Britton is great, as this is the third straight year he's posted a sub-2.00 ERA. Brach's dominance, on the other hand, isn't quite this familiar. Over his first two years in Baltimore, the righty notched a less spectacular 2.92 ERA; perhaps that represents his true talent level, and he'll regress toward it over the second half of the season. Brach doesn't have the peripheral strength to back up his 2016 production: His 2.68 FIP, while exquisite, doesn't paint the picture of a shutout relief ace. With a .198 BABIP (eighth-lowest among qualified relievers) and 97.5 percent strand rate (second-highest) buoying him, Brach appears to have overperformed.

Our analysis shouldn't stop there, though. Most pitchers don't control balls in play and sequencing, but some can - especially if they're relievers. Just look at O'Day, who's posted a .255 BABIP and 85.3 percent strand rate during his 463-inning career. The laws of DIPS don't always apply to bullpen arms. With this in mind, should we take a more optimistic view on Brach's performance? Does he have the ability to top his peripherals?

In terms of BABIP, he most likely doesn't. Out of 155 qualified relief pitchers, Brach's hard-hit rate of 26 percent ranks 41st. His 23.9 percent soft-contact rate places him at a similar 32nd. These marks are both above average, but neither of them can buttress a BABIP that miniscule. The Baltimore defense seems to have aided Brach's cause: From flashy diving catches to smooth running grabs to barehanded pickups, the fielders behind him have turned numerous would-be hits into outs, artificially deflating his BABIP. Once their mediocrity shines through, Brach's BABIP will likely rise.

When it comes to strand rate, however, Brach might have put something together. He's performed incredibly well with runners on base - only four other pitchers have a better wOBA in such situations than Brach's .170. After someone has reached, Brach has increased his strikeout rate by more than 10 percentage points, while maintaining his low walk rate. The three home runs off Brach this year have some with the bases empty. In other words, he's been great from the stretch in every way, and it seems legitimate.

With the bases empty this season, Brach has thrown most of his pitches toward the bottom of the strike zone. A mere 21.9 percent of those pitches have gone to the upper part of the strike zone (defined as areas 11, 12, 1, 2, and 3). But with runners on base, he's elevated, putting the ball up in the zone 30.8 percent of the time. This looks like a recent development for Brach - he didn't display a similar split in his first two Baltimore seasons - and it's clearly a beneficial one: He's always fooled hitters when he attacks them high. The shift in location has consistently worked Brach out of jams, and if he sticks to it, he could keep stranding runners.

Regardless of the craziness with balls in play and runners on base, Brach is a top-notch reliever. The aforementioned 2.68 FIP puts him 26th among those 155 hurlers; Brach has gotten his free passes under control, and he's still fanned batters just as often. Although the regression of his BABIP will probably harm his ERA, the legitimacy of his strand rate should keep him safe. In simpler terms, he'll allow more hits, then prevent those hits from turning into runs. Even if he's not the killer he's resembled to this point, he should continue to serve as a trustworthy late-inning presence.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.