Stacking up the NL Cy Young Award contenders

Max Scherzer and Dusty Baker have offered up their explanation for what happened in the seventh inning Wednesday night at Nationals Park. Whether you want to accept their explanation for pushing Scherzer to 116 pitches, even though it might have cost the Nationals the game and may have extended their ace too far, is up to you.

We're not going to debate that again here this morning. The purpose of this post is to examine how that decision may impact Scherzer's chances of winning his second straight National League Cy Young Award.

Individual awards, of course, should come secondary to team accomplishments. And the manner in which Wednesday night's game was handled confirmed Scherzer and the Nationals are far more interested in preparing him to help them win in October than in trying to help him win the Cy Young.

Nonetheless, this is turning into quite an interesting race now between some of the very best pitchers in baseball. With 2 1/2 weeks to go, here's how the contenders stack up...

MAX SCHERZER
Entering Wednesday's start, Scherzer looked like the strong favorite to win for the second year in a row and third overall. He owned a 2.32 ERA (second to league leader Clayton Kershaw's 2.12) but he led the league in strikeouts and opponents' batting average by a wide margin.

But his latest start did change some things. If he was pulled after allowing two runs in six innings, his ERA would have gone up slightly to 2.34. But after allowing five more runs without recording another out, that number skyrocketed to 2.59. That's a significant leap, and now leaves him well behind Kershaw.

If you care about wins and losses - and I'm not saying you should, but some do - his 14-6 mark is good but not great.

Scherzer still has plenty of factors in his favor. He has 25 more strikeouts than anyone else. His .179 opponents' batting average dwarfs Kershaw's second-best .203 mark. He has made four more starts and thrown 26 2/3 more innings, and those matter.

So there's still a case to be made that Scherzer remains the Cy Young favorite. But it's not as strong a case as it was 24 hours ago.

CLAYTON KERSHAW
Look, the Dodgers ace is phenomenal. Nobody's questioning that. The only knock on him is that he has missed time each of the last two seasons due to injury. And so that has depressed his counting stats.

Kershaw has made only 24 starts to Scherzer's 28 starts, and he has thrown only 157 innings (23rd in the NL and behind such luminaries as Ty Blach, Matt Moore and Clayton Richard). His 188 strikeouts rank eighth in the league.

So Kershaw doesn't have the kind of volume you'd normally want from a Cy Young winner. He does, however, have some awfully dominant rate stats. His 2.12 ERA now leads the league by 47 points, and that's not insignificant. His 0.92 WHIP is tied with Scherzer for the league lead. His 6.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio is best in the NL.

And then there's his record. It's 17-3, easily the best winning percentage in the league. Again, you can decide whether that carries any weight or not. But it's there, and it does still matter to some people.

What it's really going to boil down to is this: Kershaw has been brilliant when he's been on the mound, possibly the best in the league. But does his time missed due to injury bring his candidacy down enough to hurt his chances?

STEPHEN STRASBURG
Let's not forget what the Nationals' No. 2 starter is doing right now, because he has been spectacular in his own right and is making his own case to be in this conversation for the first time in his career.

Strasburg currently owns a 34-inning scoreless streak, longest in franchise history and longest in the majors this season. He ranks third in the NL with a 2.64 ERA. His .209 opponents' batting average ranks third behind Scherzer and Kershaw. His 1.03 WHIP ranks third behind those same two guys. His 10.5 strikeouts/nine-innings rate is fourth in the league.

And, again for the won-loss crowd, Strasburg is 13-4. The Nationals are 19-6 when he starts.

It would probably require a couple more dominant starts from Strasburg to get himself over the Cy Young hump. But nobody has been more dominant lately than he has, so it's not a stretch to wonder if he can do it.