Who provides depth if Herz is sidelined long-term?

Well, just yesterday morning I took a look at the Nationals’ overall roster depth ahead of the regular season starting. I noted the importance of organizational depth as the baseball gods are unpredictable and unforgiving when it comes to injuries.

Sure enough, the Nationals announced just over an hour after my post published that left-hander DJ Herz was placed on the 15-day injured list with an elbow UCL sprain. And although we won’t have more official information on the situation until tomorrow, that injury is usually associated with Tommy John surgery and/or an internal brace procedure, which would sideline Herz until 2026.

Luckily, the Nats are confident in their organizational depth, which they believe is deeper than it has been in recent years and can help sustain a successful season.

Herz was to be a part of that depth, having been optioned down to Triple-A Rochester on Friday after a rough spring that included a bout with dead arm. The southpaw was coming off a rookie season in which he went 4-9 with 4.16 ERA while pitching some of the Nats’ most dominant starts of the season, including six innings of one-hit ball with 13 strikeouts on June 15 against the Marlins and 10 strikeouts with one run allowed July 2 against the Mets.

But after finishing four Grapefruit League starts with a 6.52 ERA, 1.966 WHIP, nine walks and only four strikeouts in 9 ⅔ innings, the Nationals decided to get Herz more seasoning in the minor leagues. And now an elbow injury has derailed his season.

So in light of the Herz news, who will step up to provide the Nats much-needed depth in the starting rotation?

The person who may be most immediately impacted is Brad Lord, who finished spring training still in position to win a bullpen spot on the Opening Day roster.

Lord was one of the Nats’ fastest rising prospects last year. The 2022 18th-round pick out of the University of South Florida went 10-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 25 starts between Double-A Harrisburg and Rochester (with one rehab start at High-A Wilmington). Though during spring training, the Nationals used him mostly as a reliever, giving him a surprising opportunity to make the Opening Day roster.

The right-hander was charged with 16 hits and 10 runs (nine earned) in 13 ⅓ spring innings, but he struck out eight while only walking three batters.

Herz’s injury may cause the Nats to reimagine Lord’s position in the organization. He now may be best served reverting back to a starter and getting stretched out at Rochester to start the season, joining Japanese left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara as the next available arms ready to make a big league start.

That could mean Jackson Rutledge makes the Opening Day roster. The former first-round pick has made the full-time move from starter to reliever, so the Nationals probably wouldn’t want him to backtrack to the rotation.

Rutledge has a 1-1 record, 5.72 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in seven major league appearances, five of which are starts. Over his minor league career, the former top prospect has gone 23-25 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 93 appearances, all starts.

But this spring he posted a 3.00 ERA in 10 games, allowing only five runs across 15 innings. Two runs came in his first appearance of the spring (which also included four walks) and the other three all came during mop up duty behind Ogasawara. Aside from issuing 10 total walks, Rutledge impressed in short stints with 14 strikeouts.

Other rotation depth options on the farm include right-handers Tyler Stuart and Andry Lara and left-hander Andrew Alvarez.

Stuart, acquired in the Jesse Winker trade with the Mets last summer, posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in four starts with Harrisburg before struggling in four starts with Rochester to the tune of a 7.56 ERA and 1.620 WHIP.

Lara went 11-11 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 25 starts between Wilmington and Harrisburg, with 19 of them coming at Double-A.

Alvarez went 8-9 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in 26 starts between Harrisburg and Rochester. After his promotion to Triple-A, he went 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 16 starts with the Red Wings.

Top prospects Travis Sykora, Jarlin Susana and Alex Clemmey haven’t pitched above High-A yet. Cade Cavalli is still building up while returning from his March 2023 Tommy John surgery. Left-handed prospect Jake Bennett is also returning from his September 2023 Tommy John surgery. And Josiah Gray will miss most, if not all, of this season after his Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure last year.

An outside source (free agent acquisition or trade) is also a possibility. But the team probably feels they have enough depth in house.

So while the Herz news is disappointing for him and the Nats, the team does have options to fill his void with their pitching depth.