Most significant stories of 2021: Strasburg's devastating injury

As we reach the final week of the year, we're taking a look back at the Nationals' most significant stories of 2021. Some of them are uplifting. Some of them are depressing. All of them were significant in telling the story of the 2021 season. We continue today with one of the most depressing developments of the year: Stephen Strasburg's latest (and perhaps most serious) injury. ...

It's not fair to boil a baseball franchise's chances for success in any given year to the health and performance of a single player. Baseball isn't built like that. One superstar can't be the difference between winning and losing over a full season and postseason. It requires talent around the diamond and depth beyond the 26-man roster.

But certain players are more important to a club's fortunes than others. You can't deny that. And for more than a decade now, arguably no single player has meant more to the Nats' fortunes than Stephen Strasburg.

Here's the proof: Six times in his major league career, Strasburg has started 24 or more games. The Nationals made the playoffs in five of those six seasons (all but 2013). Six times in his career, Strasburg has started fewer than 24 games. The Nationals did not make the playoffs in any of those seasons.

Of course, there were other factors at play each of those years. Strasburg alone isn't responsible for his team's ability to reach October or not. But if we've learned nothing else since he first took the mound on South Capitol Street on that unforgettable June evening in 2010, it's a whole lot easier to win with him than it is without him.

And the Nats once again learned that the hard way this year.

Despite optimism entering the season on the heels of wrist surgery in 2020, Strasburg never came close to finding sustained success. He made two starts before landing on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. He returned a month later to make only three starts before landing back on the IL with a neck strain.

And after nearly two more months of rehab and encouraging signs he was perhaps only a couple of weeks away from returning to the active roster, Strasburg again felt discomfort while pitching and was sent to a specialist for further examination. A few days later, he had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, a procedure that has ruined more than few pitching careers over the last decade.

What difference would a healthy Strasburg have made in 2021? Would he alone have been enough to prevent the fire sale that occurred at the end of July?

Probably not. Though a healthy Strasburg-Max Scherzer combo atop the rotation would've gone a long way toward winning a lot more games, the Nationals had plenty of other roster deficiencies that would've derailed the season at some point. They probably still would've reached the trade deadline with little realistic hope of winning the division.

And yet it's not unreasonable to wonder if Strasburg's surgery - in particular, the timing of it - played a role in management's decision not just to sell off veterans in the final year of their contracts, but Trea Turner, as well, in his penultimate season of club control.

This would be the thinking: A healthy Strasburg might not have saved the 2021 season, but his guaranteed place atop the rotation heading into 2022 might've convinced club officials this was a franchise still capable of contending, with only a few key changes rather than a full-blown teardown.

Instead, the revelation of his injury and need for surgery, which came only days before the trade deadline, probably helped convince the Nats they not only weren't going to win in 2021 but might not win in 2022, either. Which suddenly made the inclusion of Turner in the blockbuster trade offer to the Dodgers more palatable.

We'll never know, of course. But what we do know is this: The Nationals have no way of knowing with any certainty what they're still going to get from Strasburg in 2022 or any of the four subsequent seasons he remains under contract (at the annual price of $35 million).

Recovery from thoracic outlet surgery varies from pitcher to pitcher. Some are never fully healthy again. Some are healthy enough to pitch, but never regain their peak form. Some fortunate few do return as if nothing ever happened.

Given his contract, the Nats have no choice but to do everything they can to try to get Strasburg back to his old self. Or, at worst, get him to a point where he can still be an effective (if not dominant) big league starter.

But it's still really hard to know what to expect. The 33-year-old right-hander was scheduled to begin throwing last month. The real test won't come until he's back on a mound after the new year, then facing live hitters in spring training, building his stamina back up and pitching in game conditions every five days.

The Nationals really hope Strasburg returns to form, but they no longer can just assume it's a given he will.

Considering his importance to the franchise, that's a sobering thought. And more than ample reason to consider the latest in a career filled with injuries big and small one of the most significant developments of 2021.