Most significant stories of 2022: Strasburg can't get healthy

We’ve reached the final week of the year, so it’s time to look back at the Nationals’ most significant stories of 2022. We continue the series today with the continued health struggles of Stephen Strasburg …

Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals were legitimately encouraged. No, the results weren’t what either was hoping for. But on an early-June evening in Miami, the results from Strasburg’s first major league start since the previous summer’s thoracic outlet surgery felt less important than the state of the right-hander’s arm.

And the right-hander honestly was satisfied in that regard.

“It felt good,” Strasburg said after giving up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings to the Marlins on June 9. “I’m excited to learn from it and get back out there for my next one. All in all, it’s a place to start and try to build off it.”

Little did Strasburg, the Nationals or anyone else realize that would be his one and only start of the season. Or that there would now be fear that was the final start of his roller-coaster career.

A couple days later, as he was throwing a standard, between-starts bullpen session, Strasburg felt something off in the back of his shoulder. The Nats immediately placed him back on the injured list, and a subsequent MRI revealed a stress reaction of his second and third ribs.

Strasburg hasn’t pitched since, and his status for the 2023 season remains the club’s biggest mystery.

“I’m not going to put any more pressure on Strasburg,” manager Davey Martinez said earlier this month. “I know he’s rehabbing right now. He’s progressing. When he’s ready and we deem he’s ready, it’s going to be awesome to see him out on that mound.”

That may be wishful thinking. Nobody at this point is willing to say Strasburg’s return is certain.

After taking an extended break during the summer to let his latest injury heal, Strasburg began a strengthening and rehab program. He currently feels as strong as he has in a long time, according to sources who have spoken to him.

The concern, though, is that Strasburg won’t still feel strong once he begins to ramp up his throwing program as spring training approaches. Though he has resumed throwing, he hasn’t begun throwing at full velocity yet, hasn’t begun throwing off a mound yet. There is reason to worry things won’t go well once he attempts to do that.

There’s a certain standard timetable in which a pitcher needs to hit certain benchmarks in order to be ready to be part of an Opening Day rotation. He needs to be throwing off a mound early in spring training. He needs to pitch in games by early March. He needs to build up his pitch count by the end of camp.

The Nationals won’t publicly say what Strasburg needs to be able to do and when.

“No, we’re not putting any timetables or any mileposts that he has to pass,” general manager Mike Rizzo said earlier this month. “We’re going to be very cautious with him and just make sure that when he does get back, he feels good about himself. Until then, we’re just going to rehab him and watch his progress.”

The unspoken truth is this: The Nationals are not making plans for Strasburg to be part of their Opening Day rotation. If it somehow happens, that would be a huge bonus. But they no longer speak about him as if he’s part of the short-term or long-term plan.

It’s been more than three years now since the celebrated No. 1 overall pick reached the pinnacle of his career, winning World Series MVP honors after leading the league in wins and innings pitched. Three days later, he opted out of the final four years of the $175 million extension he signed in May 2016. One month after that, he signed a new seven-year, $245 million contract that ensured he would remain in D.C. for his entire career.

Everything that has transpired since has been an unmitigated disaster. Strasburg has made all of eight starts over the last three seasons, totaling a scant 31 1/3 innings. He had surgery for carpal tunnel neuritis in 2020, then surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in 2021, then suffered the rib injury in 2022.

At some point, the physical toll adds up and makes it unrealistic to expect a full-fledged return. Neither the Nationals nor Strasburg, though, are giving up yet.

“I’m not going to say he’s going to be the guy that he was six, seven years ago,” Martinez said. “But Stephen Strasburg is a competitor. He’s going to compete. And that’s what he does really well. When we get him back, it will be like signing that free agent that we were looking to sign, and we’ll all be happy when he does come back.”

But what if he doesn’t? Strasburg and the Nationals may have no choice but to confront that possibility if 2023 proceeds the same way 2020, 2021 and 2022 did.