Nats still hope selection of Ward will pay off long-term

PLAYER REVIEW: THADDEUS WARD

Age on Opening Day 2024: 27

How acquired: Selected in Rule 5 draft, December 2022

MLB service time: 1 year

2023 salary: $720,000

Contract status: Under club control, arbitration-eligible in 2026, free agent in 2029

2023 stats: 0-0, 6.37 ERA, 26 G, 0 GS, 35 1/3 IP, 29 H, 26 R, 25 ER, 7 HR, 28 BB, 30 SO, 2 HBP, 1.613 WHIP, 68 ERA+, 6.68 FIP, -0.3 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR

Quotable: “Don’t forget, this guy is a young pitcher who has never pitched above the Double-A level and was coming off an injury. What you’re seeing here at the big league level is not a fully developed major league pitcher yet. That’s why we Rule 5 drafted him, and that’s why we’ve kept him on the team all season. He’ll come back next year, and if he doesn’t make the big league club, he’s got options and we’re going to stretch him out and make him a starting pitcher and see if what we saw before he was injured in the minor leagues with Boston is the guy we get.” – Mike Rizzo

2023 analysis: The Nationals hadn’t selected a player in the Rule 5 draft since 2010 – anybody remember Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick? – but with little to lose as the owner of the No. 1 pick last winter, they took a flier on Ward, an older prospect from the Red Sox who had just returned the previous season from Tommy John surgery. The club knew it couldn’t expect a lot out of the right-hander. The goal was simply to keep him on the big league roster all season, most likely as a long reliever, and then secure his long-term rights in the process.

Ward indeed was rarely, if ever, used in situations of real consequence. Of the 160 plate appearances he totaled from the mound, a whopping 145 of them were in “low-leverage” situations, per Baseball-Reference’s formula. He pitched with the Nationals ahead only twice. He pitched with them trailing by fewer than three runs only five times.

The results were about what you’d expect. Ward was effective at times, but he frequently got himself in trouble falling behind in the count (his first-pitch strike rate was a meager 47 percent), walking batters and letting his pitch count elevate. He didn’t give up a ton of hits, but the hits he did give up were loud (seven homers in only 35 1/3 innings).

When Ward mentioned some shoulder discomfort following a ragged July 1 outing, the Nats placed him on the 15-day injured list. That bought them time not only for him to recover, but to spend nearly a month on a minor league rehab assignment, during which time he was stretched out as a starter. He returned to make four relief appearances in the final weeks of the season, and in doing so the Nationals satisfied the Rule 5 requirements and did not have to offer him back to Boston.

2024 outlook: Though they wouldn’t ever publicly say it, the Nationals’ plan all along was to stick it out with Ward on the roster for the full season, then have the freedom to send him to the minors in 2024 and give him more time to develop. It’s standard practice for young Rule 5 draftees, though he’s a bit of an anomaly as an older prospect who turns 27 in January.

The Nats do believe Ward ultimately could make it as a starter, so it stands to reason he’ll open next season in the Triple-A Rochester rotation. If he performs well enough, they would consider him for a promotion to the big leagues. If not, they’ll take their time and wait to see if he develops.

How can Ward earn that eventual promotion? He’s got to be more consistently in the strike zone. His stuff seems to be good enough to get major league hitters out, especially his sharp-breaking sweeper. But he can’t afford to fall behind in the count like he did this year.

It remains to be seen if Ward can ever become a piece to the Nationals’ long-term puzzle. But at this point, they’ve invested enough time and energy into the right-hander to stick with him and hope this all pays off down the road.