What to make of the Nats' awful record in one-run games

Does a team's record in one-run games reveal anything about it? Is a good record in those tight games evidence of a team that just finds ways to win or a sign of good fortune? Is a bad record evidence of an unlucky team or one that has a fundamental flaw?

We don't know yet which explanation applies to the 2018 Nationals. But we do know this: They've been terrible in one-run games so far.

Friday night's 5-4 setback to the Diamondbacks left the Nats with a 1-7 record in one-run games, worst in the majors. It's impossible for any team, no matter how flawed, to sustain a pace like that. Over time, that record will at least creep up a bit closer to the .500 mark thanks to simple, dumb luck.

"We've been close," manager Davey Martinez said. "But I'd like to win some of these games. Let's stay right there. We want to win those games and we will win those games. It's just getting that one key hit in a big moment that'll turn this thing around."

Indeed, the Nationals' record would look a whole lot different if they simply got one more hit at the right moment in any one of those games. And with Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy inching closer to returning from the disabled list, you have to figure the odds of them producing one of those clutch hits is going to significantly grow soon.

But look at the key moments in Friday night's loss, and you find other reasons why the Nationals are losing close games ...

* Weak or no contact with runners in scoring position. The Nationals went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position Friday night, a season-long bugaboo. But neither hit drove in a run. One was a bloop single by Howie Kendrick to load the bases in the fourth. The other was a bunt single by Andrew Stevenson to load the bases in the fifth.

Then there were the at-bats taken by proven big league hitters like Bryce Harper (strikeout with the bases loaded), Ryan Zimmerman (flyout to right, groundout to short) and Trea Turner (foulout to first).

"Just got to keep going, keep grinding, keep having good at-bats," Harper said. "If we can put those together, then we are a good team. Just got to go out there, keep doing it and good things will happen."

* An inability of pitchers to put away hitters. Stephen Strasburg had A.J. Pollock down 0-2 in the count in the second. He then left a fastball up and over the plate and watched it get crushed to center field for a home run. Pollock got Strasburg again in the sixth when he followed Paul Goldschmidt's bloop single with an RBI triple off the scoreboard in right-center.

"I tried to minimize the damage as best as I could," Strasburg said. "I thought I made some pitches. It probably wasn't the right pitches."

* Less-than-crisp defense. It was a small thing, but it proved to be a big thing when with a runner on first in the top of the fourth, Daniel Descalso sent a sinking liner to left-center field. An elite outfielder might've had a chance to make a diving catch, but Matt Adams isn't an elite outfielder. Even so, Adams needed to do everything he could to at least prevent that ball from rolling to the wall. He couldn't do it. That allowed Pollock to score all the way from first base.

It produced only one run relatively early in the game. But as we've seen too many times already this season, one run has made all the difference - in a bad way - for the Nationals.