Why the Nats' surge might be legit and why it might not

Kyle Schwarber first said it one week earlier, unprompted, at the end of a Zoom session with reporters in which he was trying to temper recent suggestions the 2021 Nationals were going nowhere fast.

"Remember, this is a good team," the outfielder said as he stood up from his chair. "You guys stay with us now, all right? Stay with us."

One week later, at the end of the most productive week of his playing career, Schwarber didn't feel the need to try to convince doubters of the Nationals' potential to win this year. He almost felt the need to downplay the sudden positive vibes associated with a team that had now won seven of its last eight games.

"This is a good team. I don't know what to tell you; this is a good team," he said. "This is why I want to be here. This is why I wanted to come here. I knew this is a great team."

So, are they? The Nationals, in spite of an impressive 8-3 homestand against the Giants, Pirates and Mets, still sit three games under .500 at 33-36. They're five games back in the National League East, tied with the Braves for third place and one game behind the Phillies for second.

Max Scherzer may be set to return Tuesday night in Philadelphia, but Stephen Strasburg isn't close to returning from the injured list and Daniel Hudson has yet to begin throwing since being shut down with elbow inflammation. The lineup, Schwarber's nine-homer homestand aside, continues to flounder with runners in scoring position.

Are the Nats now good? Or was the most uplifting week of the season just a blip, not evidence of even bigger things to come?

It'll be a while until we know the answer. Perhaps the six-game road trip that begins Tuesday (two at the Phillies, four at the Marlins) will offer more evidence. Perhaps the 14-game stretch that follows against nothing but contenders (Mets, Rays, Dodgers, Padres, Giants) will provide definitive proof one way or the other.

Until then, all we can do is evaluate what we've seen of late and come up with the following reasons why this recent surge by the Nationals might actually be legitimate ...

* The rotation has become elite again
It's been stated here repeatedly for a long time now, but for those who don't remember: Every time the Nats have made the postseason since 2012, they've boasted one of the best rotations in baseball. Every time they haven't, the rotation has been average to subpar.

For the season as a whole, the Nationals' 3.81 rotation ERA ranks 11th out of 30 clubs. Nothing too special. But look only at this month's numbers and that ERA drops to a sparkling 2.08, easily the best in the majors.

And, as been stated over and over, they're doing it without Scherzer or Strasburg. The former is about to return; the latter is still playing catch on flat ground.

This resurgence has come on the shoulders of Erick Fedde (2.54 ERA in nine starts since a disastrous season debut versus the Braves), Jon Lester (2.55 ERA over his last five starts), Patrick Corbin (three runs allowed in his last 14 1/3 innings), Joe Ross (3.13 ERA over his last six starts, including a couple of bad outings), and gutsy performances by fill-in starters Paolo Espino and Jefry Rodriguez.

Maybe they can't all sustain that pace, but Scherzer's return buys the rest of them a little leeway. And eventually, Strasburg should be back, right?

* The bullpen suddenly is deep and lights-out
The Nationals entered spring training believing they had their deepest bullpen in years. Then injuries, overuse and a string of shaky performances made that notion sound less plausible.

But the tide has turned in the last few weeks, even with Hudson shelved due to elbow inflammation. Brad Hand (1.26 ERA, 0.837 WHIP in his last 14 appearances) has become a lockdown closer again. Tanner Rainey (zero runs, zero hits in his last six appearances) has taken over primary setup duties.

And overall, Nationals relievers allowed three earned runs in 32 innings during the 11-game homestand, zero during the four-game weekend series vs. the Mets.

* The defense continues to shine
The most consistently elite aspect of the Nationals this season has been their sparkling defense, all around the diamond. They rank third in the majors with 35 Defensive Runs Saved while also ranking third in FanGraphs.com's overall defensive metric. They're sixth in fielding percentage (.985), lead the majors with 19 runners caught trying to steal and finally have effectively used the shift to their advantage instead of their detriment.

For a team that so often gave its opponents more than 27 outs in past seasons, this has been a remarkable turn of events.

And then, of course, there is the one major reason the Nationals ultimately may not win in 2021 ...

* They can't hit in situations of consequence
On one hand, the Nats' .248 team batting average is tied for highest in the NL (which tells you everything you need to know about the state of offense throughout the sport right now) and their .710 OPS ranks a respectable fifth.

But that doesn't tell the true story of the Nationals at the plate in 2021. For that, you have to look at their numbers in the most important batting situations.

With runners in scoring position, they're hitting .237 (10th in the NL) with a .698 OPS (12th).

With two outs and runners in scoring position, they're hitting .198 (12th) with a .612 OPS (12th).

And with the bases loaded, they're hitting an atrocious .156 (14th) with a .511 OPS (14th) and one sacrifice fly in 70 plate appearances.

Until their situational hitting improves, the Nationals are only going to win behind elite pitching and defense. They managed to pull that trick off during this impressive homestand. But in the long run, they're going to need to see some real improvement in this area.