Three pending decisions for Orioles impacting roster and payroll

The Orioles began tackling their offseason workload much earlier than desired. The meetings are starting in the warehouse. Areas are pinpointed that must be addressed in free agency or the trade market. They have at least 15 players eligible for arbitration, the total dependent on whether they exercise reliever Cionel Pérez’s $2.2 million option for 2025, with a Jan. 9 date for the sides to submit figures. They have five players with options and five pending free agents.

When the dust finally settles, and it’s going to take a while, the payroll is expected to climb. How high is to be determined, whether it’s like a step ladder or nose-bleed elevation.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said last week that he’s “pretty confident” that the Orioles will “keep investing in the major league payroll.”

With that in mind, here are a few of the many money-based decisions that are pending.

What to do with Pérez.

Pérez filed at $1.4 million last winter and the Orioles countered at $1.1 million. They avoided a hearing with an agreement at $1.2 million and the option for $2.2 million with escalators.

The left-hander appeared in 62 games, three fewer than last summer, and his innings were practically the same at 53 2/3 compared to 53 1/3. His ERA rose from 3.54 to 4.53 but his WHIP fell from 1.556 to 1.398.

The appearances were split evenly at 31 before and after the break. Pérez posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in the first half and a 5.68 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in the second. Opponents batted .325 in September, when he allowed nine runs and 13 hits in nine innings. He also took the loss in Game 2 of the Wild Card series after being charged with the tie-breaking run in the sixth.

Pérez is one of the bullpen’s high-leverage relievers, the top left-hander after Danny Coulombe underwent elbow surgery in June. He hasn’t surrendered a home run since May 31, 2023, when the Guardians hit two. MLBTradeRumors.com projects his salary at $2.1 million next season on its arbitration list, which seems reasonable given his overall body of work. The same goes for the base salary on his option if it isn’t declined.

That’s the decision. Do the Orioles exercise it, decline it and negotiate a new deal or move on from him? The guess here is that Pérez remains with the club and it’s just a question of how it gets done.

What to do with John Means.

The Orioles have a blueprint. They created it.

Means was eligible for arbitration when the Orioles signed him to a two-year extension on May 21, 2022 worth $5.925 million. The hearing date was approaching, with Means filing at $3.1 million and the Orioles at $2.7 million. He was a month removed from Tommy John surgery.

Means wouldn’t be ready to pitch again until Sept. 12, 2023, so the Orioles covered that season and 2024. Unfortunately, he reinjured the elbow and had a second procedure on June 3.

He’s gone past arbitration and is eligible for free agency, and he made it clear that he wants to try again.

“I’m going to take it day-by-day and try to do the best I can to get it back and get it right this time,” Means said on June 15. “I still want to pitch and I’d like to fail on the field before I give it up. I feel like if I go out there, I can still pitch, and I still feel really confident in my ability.”

Elias wasn’t closing any doors in May, but he also couldn’t make any promises. The Orioles are responsible for Means' rehab unless he joins another organization.

“I’m sure we’ll be dialoguing with him as we get him back up on his feet medically,” Elias said. “He’s going to make it back. He’s a big, strong guy. And once he gets this elbow injury fully behind him, which hasn’t really been the case, it seems like, going back the last year, I think he’s got a lot of really good pitching ahead of him.”

Means wouldn’t be ready before late in the 2025 season. That’s the similarity. Maybe he’s able to help down the stretch and give the Orioles a starter for 2026. Zach Eflin is eligible for free agency after next season.

There might not be another team that values Means as much as the Orioles, what he offers on the mound when healthy and inside the clubhouse. There's a strong bond, and they could double down on their commitment to him.

What to do with Jorge Mateo.

The Orioles tendered contracts to all 17 of their arbitration-eligible players last year, which went against just about every published prediction. I definitely took the “under.”

Mateo appeared to sit on the non-tender bubble but signed for $2.7 million to dodge a hearing, batted .256 with a .736 OPS before May and experienced another decline. The speed and defense were praised, as usual, but he stopped hitting and sustained a serious elbow injury on July 23 in Miami that required an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction with internal brace and flexor repair.

Elias said Mateo, Félix Bautista and Grayson Rodriguez should be “more or less full-go at spring training,” but he noted how their situations can evolve. No one is saying that Mateo will be in Sarasota. He could be ready for the Orioles or another team.

MLBTradeRumors.com projects Mateo’s salary at $3.2 million. Is that too much for a player who’s hit .227/.273/.375 in 366 games with the Orioles – but also with 85 stolen bases – and doesn’t have a starting spot, leaving him to fight for at-bats in a utility role? Jackson Holliday will try to earn regular duty at second base, with Jordan Westburg at third. Ramón Urías also is eligible for arbitration, but he plays anywhere and he produced much more at the plate.

Notes: Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander are among 10 American League finalists for the Hank Aaron Award, which recognizes the most outstanding regular season offensive performers in each league. Also chosen are New York’s Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, Houston’s Yordan Álvarez, Boston’s Jarren Duran, Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cleveland’s José Ramírez, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Kansas City’s Bobby Witt.

Fans can cast their votes on MLB.com/aaron through Oct. 13. The winners will be announced Nov. 14 at the “All-MLB Team Show.”

* The Orioles released left-hander Ronald Guzmán, who’s trying to convert from first baseman to pitcher.

Guzmán was injured for most of the summer. He made four appearances in the Florida Complex League and four with High-A Aberdeen. He allowed 10 earned runs and 11 total with nine walks in three innings with the IronBirds, and he didn’t pitch after June 2.