Every once in a while, I make awesomely accurate predictions. Back in June, I boldly (and annoyingly) proclaimed to everyone I know that "Guardians of the Galaxy" would be the best movie of the summer. It's grossed nearly $300 million at the box office, partially due to the fact that I've seen it three times and would gladly go again if I could just convince someone to join me. It's arguably Marvel's best movie to date. Told you guys.
Other times, I make horribly inaccurate (and equally annoying) predictions. After spring training, I openly disagreed with the Orioles' decision to keep Jonathan Schoop on the 25-man roster rather than giving him more time to develop at Triple-A Norfolk. I didn't believe in his defense and thought he would be better served learning at the plate in the minors rather than struggling in the big leagues. Wrong.
Way back in March, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts seemed to be a popular preseason prediction for American League Rookie of the Year. Bogaerts had shown promise for the World Series champion Red Sox in 2013 when he played in 18 games in September and slashed .250/.320/.364. The Red Sox front office felt so strongly about his defense that they handed the 21-year-old a starting spot on opening day. After a solid April and May, Bogaerts' numbers took an enormous dip south; he hit just .135 in June, .228 in July and .123 in August. He recorded just 13 extra base-hits over that three month span. Despite these struggles, Boston stuck with the rookie and he's recently started to show signs of life again in September.
Unlike Bogaerts, no one labeled Schoop a preseason Rookie of the Year candidate, but he's outperformed the Red Sox shortstop in WAR and has proven to be a much more reliable defender. Despite hitting .221 on the season, the Orioles have stuck with Schoop because of the value he provides the club at second base. He's outperforming the league average in range factor per nine innings and has posted a 5.1 ultimate zone rating and nine defensive runs saved, ranking the third-highest among American League players at his position in both categories.
When it comes to defense, there's no question that I was wrong about Schoop. Just take a look at some of the highlight-reel plays he made on Tuesday night against the Reds, including his game-ending tag to start double play. The Orioles have certainly shown how highly they value a player's defensive abilities, even to the point of overlooking some offensive woes so long as that player is helping his team in the field. It's the reason they quickly promoted Manny Machado to play third base in 2012 and why they opted not to call up Steve Lombardozzi, who hit .270/.307/.311 with Triple-A Norfolk, this season. Defense is definitely important to Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter.
But forget the leather. Lately I have been impressed with Schoop's improvements with the lumber. On Tuesday night, he crushed a 446-foot bomb to left-center field, the longest homer of the season at Camden Yards. He then followed that with a two-run double down the left field line in the seventh inning. Five of Schoop's last nine hits have been for extra bases.
The power potential is certainly there. Just ask the Yankees, against whom Schoop has hit four of his 14 homers and 11 of his 42 RBIs.
When it comes to being wrong about a prediction, I'll happily admit to this one. Every Schoop home run, every double down the line, every diving stop and every double play turned don't make me upset that I swung and missed on this preseason proclamation. I couldn't be more thrilled to look foolish.
Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zamwi. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.
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