Zach Wilt: On-base percentage the key to wins and losses for O's

There's no question that the Orioles have one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Opposing starters fear the wicked combo of Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis and Manny Machado, three guys with more than 30 homers. Oh by the way, Adam Jones is two shy of being the fourth Oriole to join that list. With 10 games remaining, the Birds are on pace to hit 253 home runs this season and they've crushed a league leading 238 so far. In September however, the O's bats seemed to have gone quiet during arguably the most important point of the season.

With a serious chance of making ground in the division, the Orioles have dropped their first three games at home against the Boston Red Sox. They've seen their divisional playoff odds dip from 8 percent before the series started to 0.2 percent today. Now, the O's are holding on to a one-game lead for the second American League wild card spot with the Tigers and Astros nipping at their heels. If the season ended today, Baltimore would travel north to Toronto for that crazy play-in game. I'm sure they'd love to avoid that altogether by winning the East or, at the very least, host that game as the AL's top wild card. In order to do either, they're going to have to get the bats going once again.

In five straight games, the Orioles offense has scored two runs or less. They're 1-4 during that stretch. September opponents have limited the O's to two runs or less in nine of their 19 games. How? What happened to the run production from this powerful lineup?

Many argue that the Orioles offense is far too dependant on the long ball to provide consistent results throughout the season. Sure, they'll out-homer opponents all year long, but if they struggle to manufacture runs, there will certainly be long dry spells for this offense. That's been the case for them in September.

Exactly 51.35 percent of all of the Orioles runs scored this season have come from the long ball. No team in the last five seasons has scored over half their runs from homers. Believe it or not, the Mets are slightly more dependant than the Orioles on home runs this season (52.87 percent of their runs scored). It's important to note that there are many playoff hopeful teams on this list that depend on the home run, and this number isn't exclusive to struggling teams. The Mets, Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rangers and Astros all rank in the top 10 in home run dependency in 2016.

We've seen the Orioles mash for a month and outscore their opponents by 45 runs. That was June, when they crushed an major league leading 56 home runs and scored 185 runs, 27 more than the next closest team. They won 19 games that month and entered July with a five game lead in the AL East. Though everyone will talk about the power displayed during that 28-game stretch, few point out the fact that the O's actually led baseball in on-base percentage that month as well. That, my friends, is the real key to this offense clicking.

The Birds had a .357 on-base percentage in June, it's down to .299 in September. Overall this season, their team OBP is .317. So I decided to look at the Orioles' success when they are league average in OBP, which is .322. In games in which the Orioles have a team OBP of .322, they're 58-18, that's a .763 winning percentage. Maybe .322 is asking too much, what about .300? That's below league average. When the Orioles have a team OBP of .300 or higher in a game, they're 62-25 (.712 winning percentage).

This math totally makes sense. Because the Orioles out homer their opponents, having guys on base means they're going to drive more in when the long ball is hit. More runs means more wins and more wins a means happier Baltimore. It also means that when those home runs dry up, and anyone who has watched recently knows that they will definitely dry up, that they'll still find ways to score runs and pick up wins.

Home run dependency is fine as long as the team can balance it with even slightly below average on-base percentage. That's what the Orioles are going to have to do in the next 10 games if they plan to play baseball in October.

Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.