What are the Orioles missing? A veteran outfielder, a big-time slugger and a shutdown reliever.
That's what the Orioles lost during the offseason to the free agent market. After nine seasons in black and orange, Nick Markakis signed on with the Atlanta Braves. Nelson Cruz, who was arguably the best free agent signing last offseason, cashed in on his 40-homer season with a $57 million contract out west in Seattle. Andrew Miller headed north to put on the pinstripes for the division rival New York Yankees. All three former O's inked four-year deals with their new ball clubs.
Dan Duquette brought in Travis Snider from Pittsburgh to replace Markakis in right field and believed that a bounceback season from Chris Davis would help ease the pain of replacing last season's home run leader. As for Miller, the O's believe that Brad Brach will play a bigger role in the bullpen and feel comfortable with their options in late-inning relief with Darren O'Day and Zach Britton.
After just over a month of the season, how much are the O's missing Markakis, Cruz and Miller? How much better would they be with those three on the 2015 roster?
In 27 games with the Braves, Markakis is off to a hot start, slashing .301/.390/.340 in 118 plate appearances. Fredi Gonzalez has used him in the leadoff spot in 11 games, where has just 10 hits in 45 at-bats. Surprisingly, Markakis has found most of his success in the three-hole with Atlanta, where he's recorded 18 hits, scored nine runs and driven in five while picking up eight walks.
Defensively the Orioles have been sound in right field, but they could certainly use a guy getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time atop their order this season. Alejandro De Aza has had the most at-bats as the O's leadoff hitter, 64, and he's slashing just .274/.279/.391 in that role. Evereth Cabrera has fared on slightly better, .304/.320/.304.
Were 40 homers a fluke for Cruz? It sure doesn't look like it. After just 27 games, he already has 14 longballs this season which puts him on pace for 81 - that's got to be some kind of record. A red-hot month shouldn't come as a surprise to Orioles fans, though. Cruz hit 13 homers for the Birds in May last season, but hit just four in July, six in August and five in September. He can be streaky and, like every power hitter, the strikeouts pile up when the power declines. He struck out 27 times with the O's in August last season.
Davis hasn't been able to keep up with Cruz's insane pace, but he leads the O's with six homers in his first 24 games and has impressed overall at the plate with a .273/.340/.534 slash line. We've seen him hit the other way on a few occasions and take walks when necessary. As nice as it would be to have another power bat in the Orioles lineup, the Birds have been a bit homer-dependent over the past few seasons - 47.80 percent of their runs in 2014 came via the longball, the highest percentage of any team in the big leagues. They're down to 40.16 this season.
Despite Cruz's ridiculous start to the 2015 season, the Mariners still find themselves underperforming as a team. At 11-16, they're tied with the Rangers for the worst record in the American League West. Baltimore's offense has been more well-rounded this season with its .273 team batting average (third in the majors). It may sound crazy, but maybe they're better off without an all-or-nothing guy in the lineup.
How about Miller? He's been absolutely nasty in the Bronx. Miller hasn't allowed an earned run this season over 13 2/3 innings pitched, he's walked seven and fanned 23. Based on those numbers, he'd easily be the best reliever in the O's bullpen this season and they could use it. The Yankees bullpen has pitched to a 2.19 ERA this season, fifth in the majors, while the O's have posted a 3.95 bullpen ERA, ranking 21st.
Joe Girardi has relied heavily upon Miller, though. He's on pace to throw 78 2/3 innings this season, and he hasn't thrown more than 62 1/3 since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012. We'll have to keep an eye on the how that workload affects him as the season progresses.
How many more wins would the Orioles have this season if they had kept Markakis, Cruz and Miller? That's a nearly impossible question to answer. Despite all three performing well in their new uniforms, the Orioles have fared OK without them. The O's biggest struggle this season has been consistent starting pitching, they rank 23rd in starters' ERA at 4.54. Last I checked, Markakis, Cruz and Miller weren't starters. Once J.J. Hardy, Matt Wieters and Jonathan Schoop get back to playing every day, I expect them to be just fine.
Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zamwi. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.
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