Zach Wilt: What has to happen in May for O's

As a baseball fan, April is a month that I look forward to all year long. As an Orioles fan in 2018, I can't wait for this April to be over. The O's have just three more games remaining in this terrible month. They're currently 6-19, 13 1/2 games back of first place in the American League East and 8 1/2 games back of a wild card spot - it's never too early to think about the wild card.

Another couple of weeks of losing baseball and the Orioles will most certainly be looking to sell at the trade deadline at the end of July. With Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton and Brad Brach in the final years of their contracts, rival general managers will most certainly be calling Dan Duquette to get a feel for the price of these valuable pieces. May is a critical month for the Orioles' fate, not just in 2018, but for the years to come. So what would the club have to do to delay the potential rebuild? I ran some numbers to find out.

For simple math, I've projected that the Orioles will go 1-2 in their next three games. With a .240 winning percentage this season, that record actually seems optimistic. This means that the the Orioles will finish April with a 7-21 record. The Orioles have 30 games in 31 days in May with two off-days and a doubleheader against the Rays, plenty of opportunity to make up some ground. I think they can still complete this season and avoid a fire sale in July by ending May with a .500 record. To do that though, the Orioles would have to go 22-8. That's a .733 winning percentage. It's a lofty goal, but it's one that the Red Sox accomplished in April. Boston has a .792 winning percentage on the season so far.

A 22-8 run might be a bit too much. Since 2012, the Orioles haven't won more than 19 games in a single month. What about if the Orioles just won each series that they played in May? The Birds have nine series in May and finish the month with one game against the Yankees. They play three four-game series (versus Tampa Bay, at Boston and at the Chicago White Sox) and one two-game series (versus Philadelphia). If they split the two- and four-game series and win the remaining series, they would finish the month 18-12 with a 25-33 record on the season. It's still five games under .500, but it's a huge climb out of the hole dug in April.

That seems more feasible than 22-8, but it's still asking a lot for a club that has really struggled the first month of the season. What about going .500 in May? A 15-15 record would be .500 in May and would put the Birds at 22-36 on the season. That's still 14 games below .500 with just 64 percent of the season remaining. Going .500 in May probably wouldn't cut it if the Orioles still want to hang around this season. They have stacked up too many losses early to just go .500 and still hang around.

The glaring omission from all of these projections is the rest of the division and even the AL. Three teams in the AL East are at least five games over .500 today. Eight of the 15 teams in the American League are over .500. To make up ground, the Orioles would have to depend on the rest of the league taking a step back or at least maintaining their current pace while the Birds pick up their own. Some clubs have definitely outperformed expectations, while others are playing up to the standards we expected.

The other thing we are forgetting is that .500 is just a base to build upon. That record won't get you to October. It takes 85-90 wins to grab a wild card spot.

May is a huge month that's jam packed with baseball. Hopefully, the Orioles will flip the calendar and start anew. If they plan to stick around, it's time to start digging out. If they don't, expect to see a lot of movement at the deadline

Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.