A look at a pitcher who once didn't look like a Cy Young winner (plus an O'Day take)

You would think a pitcher that wins a Cy Young Award would probably be a high draft pick, got a big-dollar signing bonus and never pitched to an ERA of 5.00 or more in the majors leagues.

You might think that, but then check out Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros. The bearded one won that award last night.

Jim Stevenson is the scout that signed Dallas Keuchel and told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that Keuchel was never considered a top prospect. He said of Keuchel's American League Cy Young win: "Against all odds. You couldn't find his name on a prospect list in the minor leagues."

How about this, by the way: Drellich reports that Stevenson also drafted National League Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta in the 26th round in 2005 for the Brewers, but he did not sign.

But back to Keuchel, who was drafted in the seventh round in the 2009 draft. He was taken No. 221 overall and signed to a bonus of $150,000. He was never ranked higher than No. 21 on the Astros' prospects lists and that means he never came close to being a top 100 prospect. In 2012, as a rookie with Houston, Keuchel went 3-8 with an ERA of 5.27. The next season, he went 6-10 with a 5.15 ERA. This year he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA and he took home the hardware last night.

When Keuchel was ranked No. 21 on Houston's top 30 list after the 2011 season, the Baseball America write-up on him ended this way:

"A potential back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever, he'll have to keep proving himself one level at a time. He'll start 2012 back in Triple-A, where he was rocked in four of his seven late-season starts."

I didn't see future Cy Young winner in there anywhere. No knock on Baseball America, it's the industry standard on prospects. But the bigger point here is that you can get good players later in the draft and they don't have to have been signed for millions of dollars. Players that don't set the world on fire in their first 38 major league starts can still be pretty good.

I hope we all keep this in mind when we write off some 21- or 22-year-old kid because he hit just .230 at Single-A Frederick or only had an ERA of 4.50 at Double-A Bowie.

I am reminded of the many, many times that readers chastised me for writing about catcher Caleb Joseph when he was in the minors. "He's too old to be a prospect," they said. Keuchel's first major league success came at 26. Joseph didn't even make the big leagues until he was 28.

We live in a world where some have an attention span of about 30 seconds. We rush to judgment on players and do it constantly. If a player doesn't put up good stats his first year in the majors, we sometimes figure they never will. It happens the other way, too, when a player looks good and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Right now most Orioles fans would probably be much higher on Mychal Givens than Mike Wright, based on what they saw this year.

None of the checklist was checked with Keuchel. He was not a high draft pick. He did not sign for millions. He was not a top-rated prospect. He was not good initially in the majors. But as of last night, he is a Cy Young winner.

The NL Cy Young winner was Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs. He was the Orioles' fifth-round pick out of TCU in 2007, but he got a $1.1 million bonus worthy of a player picked much higher. Unlike Keuchel, he was a top prospect, ranked No. 4 among O's prospects after the 2008 and 2009 seasons. He was a top 100 prospect, too, ranking No. 67 after the 2008 season and No. 99 after the 2009 season.

He just never had consistent major league success until leaving the Orioles in a trade with the Cubs. His current success is admired by some fans and it drives others crazy that a failed O's pitching prospect is now this good after leaving Baltimore.

Arrieta note: Double-A Bowie broadcaster Adam Pohl tweeted last night that Arrieta is the first Cy Young winner in Bowie Baysox history. Meanwhile, the Triple-A Norfolk Tides tweeted that he become the third to have played for their franchise after Dwight Gooden (1985) and Mike Scott (1986) when Norfolk was a New York Mets affiliate.

Can the O's keep Darren O'Day?: Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports tweeted this yesterday:

"Sources: O'Day asking for four-year deal in $28M to $36M range. Most accomplished reliever on open market."

That, to me, seems fair and reasonable for O'Day. He is and has been that good. When teams are fighting over a player this good, he can and probably will get a contract very similar to those stated terms. Some team will likely go four years on O'Day.

Despite all their other needs and potential replacements in-house for O'Day, the Orioles don't have anyone else this good and the leadership lost would be felt. Before you say Givens could fill that role, we don't know if he can - and what if the O's had bullpen injuries next year? I think they need to go the extra mile for O'Day.

They need to take a hard look at winning a bidding war for this player. He means too much to the team and, with Zach Britton, provides the one-two punch at the back of the Orioles bullpen that has become so important in the game.