A look at the debate over qualifying offers

The qualifying offer is sure to come up during labor negotiations this year as the players and owners work on a new collective bargaining agreement.

Some believe the system is broken, but I do not agree. This year, teams extended 20 players qualifying offers, which meant those players could re-sign with their club and take the one year offer for $15.8 million or go on to test the free agent market.

The catch for players that turn down a qualifying offer is that a team signing them now loses a draft pick. Not every pick was lost this winter a first-round pick. The top 10 draft picks are protected, so those teams lose their next highest pick.

Of the 20 players this year, three accepted the qualifying offer - the Orioles' Matt Wieters, the Dodgers' Brett Anderson and the Astros' Colby Rasmus.

Six players wound up re-signing with their fomer teams: the Orioles' Chris Davis, the Blue Jays' Marco Estrada, the Royals' Alex Gordon, the Dodgers' Howie Kendrick, the Mariners' Hisashi Iwakuma and the Cubs' Dexter Fowler.

The 11 players that changed teams were Jason Heyward (Cubs), Ian Desmond (Rangers), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), John Lackey (Cubs), Daniel Murphy (Nats), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Wei-Yin Chen (Marlins), Yovani Gallardo (Orioles), Ian Kennedy (Royals) and Justin Upton (Tigers).

Seven teams gave up first-round draft picks: Texas for Desmond, Arizona for Greinke, St. Louis for Lackey, Washington for Murphy, San Francisco for Samardzija, Kansas City for Kennedy and Baltimore for Gallardo.

Those picks just go away, not to the other team, so the first-round shrinks and the in June will actually consist of just 23 picks. The first compensation pick starts at No. 24.

When I look at that list of 20 players, I see two to four that really were greatly impacted by the draft pick compensation and those are Gallardo, Desmond, Kendrick and Fowler. Three signed late and took less than projected, and the draft pick compensation clearly worked against them.

But in Gallardo's case, so did a strong pitching market where teams ranked other pitchers ahead of him and they were signed first. Some might not list Fowler here. He did take a one-year deal, but as you may know, he had a three-year deal out there from the Orioles for $33 million. He just didn't take it.

For me, the qualifying offer system did not hurt at least 80 percent (16 of 20) of the players. The three that chose to take the offer will be paid quite well this year and can hit the free agent market again after the 2016 season. Those others that turned down an offer and re-signed with their 2015 teams did so by choice.

Some players with draft pick compensation attached still got huge contracts, including Greinke ($206.5 million), Heyward ($184 million), Davis ($161 million), Upton ($132.75 million), Zimmermann ($110 million) and Samardzija ($90 million).

While a small number of players again were hurt by the qualifying offers, most got paid and some got paid very well. I don't see a broken system at all. Elite players will get their money. Heck, most players will get their money. The teams losing those players get a draft pick as compensation. That seems fair to me.

Maybe there should be some scrutiny of the players and agents making these decisions. While there is no sure-fire way to predict how the market will play out, it is the job of the agents to make such projections. They have to know when their player might rank behind too many other players to make his chances of getting a long-term contract questionable with the pick compensation.

A player like Desmond looks like he lost out. But fhe did have the choice of the $15.8 million qualifying offer. He also at one time turned down a potential $107 million extension offer from the Nationals. So is the system broken or did the player and his rep make some questionable choices?

Maybe there should be some discussion about how many draft picks are protected and that number should be increased. With that number now 10, Detroit (with a protected pick at No. 9) gave up only second- and third-round picks to sign Zimmermann and Upton. The Orioles, meanwhile, gave up the No. 14 pick to sign Gallardo. The O's got the No. 29 pick for losing Chen and the picked has moved up to No. 27 after the signings of Gallardo and Desmond.

Markets fluctuate and change. But should the qualifying offer system be changed? Maybe players have come to realize there are times they should take the offer and move on. Because a few players are impacted by this each winter is no reason for a change in my opinion.

What is your take on qualifying offers? Should changes be made?

Over-unders: You will need the Orioles to win 80 games this season to hold a winning wager in the over-unders on wins totals listed by the online sportsbook Bovada. The O's are listed at 79.5. Here are the numbers for each major league team:

92.5 - Chicago Cubs
89.5 - New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
88.5 - Los Angeles Dodgers
87.5 - Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
86.5 - Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
85.5 - Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees
84.5 - Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers
82.5 - Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
81.5 - Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays
80.5 - Chicago White Sox
79.5 - Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins
78.5 - Minnesota Twins
75.5 - Oakland Athletics
73.5 - San Diego Padres
70.5 - Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
69.5 - Milwaukee Brewers
66.5 - Atlanta Braves
65.5 - Philadelphia Phillies