A look at the O's haul of prospects on FanGraphs' list

By Steve Melewski

Orioles

February 23, 2022, 11:33am

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Another outlet released a top 100 list (actually 114) on Wednesday, and this time the Orioles produced their strongest representation yet when they placed six players in the top 69 on the list released by FanGraphs.com.

Adley Rutschman was yet again rated as the top position prospect and overall No. 1 prospect in baseball, as he was earlier by Baseball America, The Athletic and ESPN. But this time right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez achieved his highest ranking ever, at No. 3. He had been rated No. 6 by Baseball America, No. 8 on ESPN and No. 14 via The Athletic.

So, the Orioles organization produced two of the top three prospects in baseball, three of the top 27, four of the first 40 and six of the top 69 on this list.

Left-hander DL Hall was rated No. 27 by FanGraphs, with outfielder Colton Cowser coming in at No. 40 and infielders Gunnar Henderson at No. 66 and Coby Mayo at No. 69.

Earlier, the O's placed five players on the Baseball America list, with the first four in the top 57, and five in The Athletic rankings, with just three in the top 52. Of their six players ranked on the ESPN top 100, four were No. 74 or lower, with three at No. 94 or lower.

So FanGraphs.com is the most bullish on the O's prospects during this ranking season, when outlets are releasing both top 100s and organizational rankings.

By my count, no other major league team placed even five players among the top 69 on the FanGraphs list, and the Orioles had six. When FanGraphs released an Orioles top 45 recently, after Rutschman, Rodriguez, Hall, Cowser, Henderson and Mayo, they ranked pitcher Kyle Bradish No. 7, outfielder Kyle Stowers No. 8 and infielder Jordan Westburg No. 9. Outfielder Heston Kjerstad rounded out the top 10.

What does getting six in the first 69 on a league-wide list mean for the O's future?

"Just that the long period of suffering is starting to come to an end," said Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com lead prospect analyst. "That there are real cornerstones for a competitive postseason club who are not only in the farm system but very close to the big leagues.

"I think it means that they have players in the system that represent a competitive core. That, while it's unlikely that everyone we put on this list turns into the player we think and hope they will be, there is enough depth to fight against that natural rate of failure and attrition and still have a postseason-worthy club in the next half decade."

One thing unique about the FanGraphs rankings is a Future Value component they produce based on projected Wins Above Replacement the player could achieve during his first six seasons of team control at the big league level.

Rutschman was the only player to get a 70 FV grade. Rodriguez was one of three that got a 65 FV. Hall received a 55 and Cowser, Henderson and Mayo were graded at 50. The outlet listed 114 players it rated with 50 or more FV.

Using that projected WAR, a position player getting a 70 grade, as Rutschman did, is deemed capable of being among the top 10 players in the majors with a WAR range on average per season between 5.0 and 7.0. The O's Cedric Mullins, for comparison's sake, was 14th in the majors in FanGraphs' WAR last year at 5.3.

That 70 FV grade puts Rutschman in an elite group of prospects from previous years that received 70 grades that included Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It put him behind Tampa Bay's Wander Franco, who got a very rare 80 grade at the top of the scale.

"They are not big league stars until they have done it at the big league level. But that group of guys was ranked in the Future Value tier that Rutschman occupies now," Longenhagen said, also noting players such as Ronald AcuÃ±a Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. getting 70 grades.

In getting one of the three 65 grades, Rodriguez projects somewhere between 60 and 70. FanGraphs pitchers getting 60 FV ratings are listed as someone in the range of a 3.30 FIP that can approach 200 innings while producing between 3.5 and 4.9 WAR. A pitcher at 70 is a top rotation type capable of a sub-3.00 FIP and able to throw about 200 innings, producing 5.0 to 7.0 WAR.

In getting a 55 grade, Hall is among those cited as mid-rotation pitchers with about a 3.70 FIP and throwing 160 innings, producing 2.6 to 3.4 WAR. Last year John Means led O's pitchers at 2.5 WAR, per FanGraphs.

Those given 50 FV grades as position players are said to be average everyday players that produce between 1.6 and 2.4 WAR. Austin Hays had the second-highest WAR among O's position players last season at 2.4.

Among FanGraphs.com's top 69 ranked players, 40 came from the American League, with 29 from the National League. The O's led all teams with six of those players, while no other club had more than four. Boston, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Texas and the New York Mets had four players each. Four teams did not have a player in the top 69: Atlanta, Washington, the Chicago White Sox and Colorado.

In the rest of the AL East, the Yankees had three in the top 69 and Toronto placed two players. The AL East had 18 of the top 69 (26 percent). The AL Central and West and NL Central came in tied for second, with 11 each. The NL East and West had nine players each.

On the FanGraphs top 100 released before the 2021 season, Rutschman was No. 3, Rodriguez No. 30 and Hall No. 83. Ryan Mountcastle was No. 94 and Kjerstad was No. 103.

I asked Longenhagen which among Cowser, Henderson and Mayo he felt had the best chance to make a major move up the board a year from now.

"I think of that three, that Mayo has the most potential to do so," he said. "He strikes us as a prospect that has the widest error bar. One that has the biggest gap between his potential ceiling and floor. Where Cowser and Henderson feel a little bit more stable and solid to us but maybe don't have quite as a big of a ceiling. So, if I had to pick someone that might really blow up from that group, it would be Mayo."