A look at the Orioles' 2017 payroll obligations

After putting together an 89-win team on a payroll in the $150 million range in 2016, will the Orioles be spending a similar amount on talent in 2017?

We are just guessing here, since no team is going to provide their budget and/or payroll information. There is no edge to be gained in doing so, so teams will not do it. But based on available information, we can at least take a look at projected payroll obligations for the Orioles for next season.

Guaranteed dollars for 2017:
$17 million - Chris Davis
$16.3 million - Adam Jones
$14 million - J. J. Hardy
$13.5 million - Ubaldo Jimenez
$11 million - Yovani Gallardo
$8.750 million - Wade Miley
$7 million - Darren O'Day
$4.2 million - Hyun Soo Kim

The eight players in this category have their salaries locked in for the 2017 season. The eight combine for a total of $91.75 million. There are websites that list Davis at $21.1 million for 2017 or even more, but those appear to factor in his deferred dollars that will be paid later. His base salary is $17 million for 2017.

Here are the arbitration estimates for 2017 from MLBTradeRumors.com:
$11.4 million - Zach Britton
$11.2 million - Manny Machado
$10.6 million - Chris Tillman
$3.9 million - Kevin Gausman
$3.4 million - Jonathan Schoop
$3.3 million - Vance Worley
$2.9 million - Brad Brach
$1.7 million - Ryan Flaherty
$1 million - Caleb Joseph
$700,000 - T. J. McFarland

The 10 players in this category have a total arbitration projection of $50.1 million. This figure would be altered if the club non-tenders any of these players, making them free agents. They could then potentially be re-signed for fewer dollars. Also, the number could change if the projections prove too low or high in some cases.

This group of 10 combined for salaries of $25.427 million last year and now that is projected to nearly double at $50.1 million. It shows you how payrolls increase through arbitration just to keep your own players even before they get to free agency.

Adding the eight players with guaranteed dollars for 2017 with the 10 players and their arbitration projections produces a figure of $141.85 million for 18 players.

To complete their 25-man roster the Orioles could and likely will carry several pre-arbitration players that will be earning at or near the league minimum salary for 2017. But that should not add much to the payroll for next year, probably between $2-4 million.

Maybe we can see now why the team did not take the chance and offer catcher Matt Wieters the $17.2 million qualifying offer. If he had been offered it and accepted, the payroll would be around $159 million.

The Orioles have this list of free agents that can now sign with any team, including the Orioles: Wieters, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Michael Bourn, Nolan Reimold, Brian Duensing, Tommy Hunter, Logan Ondrusek, Paul Janish and Drew Stubbs.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts website, the Orioles' payroll has increased every year since 2012:

2012: $84.1 million
2013: $92.2 million
2014: $107.9 million
2015: $118.9 million
2016: $147.7 million

The website Spotrac.com listed Baltimore's 2016 payroll as $151.9 million for the 25-man roster and with a total payroll at $156.9 million to rank 12th among all major league teams.

If the Orioles are to be in the $150 million range again this year, that doesn't provide the team much flexibility to add free agents, maybe not even to retain Trumbo.

Where do you expect the O's 2017 payroll to end up and how will that impact the team this offseason?

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