Acquired in July, Zach Eflin could head up the 2025 O's rotation

It might have been, on the one hand, an indication that the new O’s ownership group might spend more on player salaries moving forward when they added a pitcher in July that is signed for $18 million in 2025.

Not only did the Orioles give up three top 30 prospects when they acquired right-hander Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay on July 26, but they took on that salary for next season as well.

Eflin pitched quite well in nine O’s starts in the regular season and one more in the postseason. Right now, he is likely the No. 1 pitcher in a rotation that might be adding a pitcher or two over the winter and one that looks to get Grayson Rodriguez back as a full go when 2025 begins. A rotation that could see free agent Corbin Burnes signed for $200 million or more elsewhere leaving the club a draft pick, but a hole at the top of the starting five.

No one is saying Eflin is the equal of Burnes, but he was close to that since the start of 2023.

In that two-season span, Eflin has made 59 starts, going 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In the same two-season span, Burnes has gone 25-17 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.

Eflin, age 30, made nine starts after the trade and the Orioles went 7-2 in those games. As an Oriole, he was 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP. He walked 11 and fanned 47. He made seven quality starts.

Eflin did not allow more than three runs in any of his nine starts after joining the team. He won his first five starts to begin his Orioles career, joining Jack Harshman (1958) as the only Orioles to win each of their first five appearances with the club. He’s the first to win each of his first five with all of them being starts and the first Oriole to win each of his first five starts with the team since Ben McDonald in July and August of 1990.

Eflin and the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle were drafted with almost the same exact pick in the MLB Draft three years apart from the same high school. They both played for Paul J. Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Fla. with Eflin drafted by San Diego with pick No. 33 in 2012. In 2015 the O’s took Mountcastle from that school with the No. 36 overall selection.

In a metric called fastball run value, Eflin ranked in the top five percent of the majors this year. But in breaking ball run value he was in the bottom eight percent. He was top 12 percent in chase percentage, a good stat for a pitcher without a big strikeout rate.

One stat that was poor for Eflin in 2024 were his numbers when he faced a lineup the third time through the batting order. He allowed an OPS of just .647 first time through the lineup and .605 the second time. But his average against was .347 and OPS against .870 the third time through. That might be the key reason he was lifted in Game 2 of the playoffs versus Kansas City after four innings, allowing one run at 75 pitches. The Royals were about to turn the lineup over for the third time and manager Brandon Hyde went to lefty reliever Danny Coulombe.

That time when an AL East team helped an AL East team: In this article from August, I wrote about what happened after Eflin was traded to the Orioles. Tampa Bay pitching coach Kyle Snyder called O's pitching coach Drew French. He provided insight on Eflin's routines and provided info which made his transition to the Orioles easier.

One AL East division rival helping another?

Yep, that was kind of strange, but it really came about because Snyder became close with Eflin in Tampa Bay and this spring he developed a strong friendship with French.

“When the trade did go down, he did reach out and said I’ve got some info," French told me in August. "It is really about respect for the transition of the player that we know what his routine looks like, what his side days are. Just kind of the in-between stuff. In the same division, there is usually not a ton of company secrets thrown out between us. But it was some general stuff that helped us know the player better. Kyle really helped with that.”

Eflin, it is clear, holds Snyder in the highest regard. He also told me in his early days with the Orioles that he saw Baltimore's pitching coaches as forward thinking, just like he had with the Rays. 

“Very, very similar. It is refreshing to know that all the stuff that is applied in Tampa, is applied here in Baltimore. And I really didn’t dive into all the analytics stuff until last year when I got with Tampa. I think it has helped me tremendously,” said Eflin.