As Nats back off laboring Herz, fifth starter race comes into focus

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. – The fifth starter competition in Nationals camp has been less a spirited battle and more a war of attrition. One that may leave Mitchell Parker as the last man standing when the team heads north in 10 days.

DJ Herz seemingly had an opportunity to make a case for himself this afternoon against the Rays, but it turns out the Nats planned all along to limit the young left-hander to no more than 60 pitches in response to his diminished velocity this spring.

So, Herz was pulled after three innings and 56 pitches (only 30 of them strikes). He allowed just one run, via a towering homer by Brandon Lowe, but he also surrendered a double and issued two walks while striking out just one batter during an eventual 14-4 drubbing by Tampa Bay. All this while throwing a fastball that topped out at 91 mph. (He averaged 93.5 mph last season.)

“We just battled, just found a way to get outs,” he said. “It might not have been the most efficient, but we found a way to get outs. I think we had planned already it was going to be 60 (pitches); we just cut it.”

One of the brightest spots of the 2024 season after making 19 starts, several of them among the best outings anyone on the team had, Herz has looked less than impressive this spring. Over 9 2/3 total innings, he has allowed nine runs (seven earned) on 10 hits, walking nine while striking out only four.

More troublesome has been his noticeable dip in velocity, though he noted this has been common for him throughout his career in spring training, dating back to his time in the Cubs organization.

“The spring training wear and tear kind of hits me a little harder,” Herz said. “Look at last year, and then look at the years before, my velo’s always down in spring training, my command is all over the place. … Spring training hits me a lot harder than, I would say, most people. And I’m kind of going through that right now. I’m trying to grind through, get through these ones, until my arm is good.”

Herz insists there’s no injury concern; his arm simply doesn’t appear to be ready for this much workload at this time of year. And when he tries to summon it in front of a crowd of 3,056 like he did today at Charlotte Sports Park, it’s just not there.

“I’m a big adrenaline guy,” he said. “For right now, I’m not having that adrenaline to get me pumped. But once it really matters, and all this stuff matters, the adrenaline kicks in and everything just kind of falls into place. I’ve just never been that sharp guy in spring training. I’m still learning a process; maybe I’ve got to start ramping up a little earlier.”

That’s all well and good, but Herz theoretically is competing for a spot in the Nationals’ Opening Day rotation. And right now, he’s losing a competition in which none of the three choices has seized the moment.

“He’s a very high-energy guy,” manager Davey Martinez said. “But even in these games, you’re there to compete, right? You should feel some kind of adrenaline.”

Shinnosuke Ogasawara (7.56 ERA, 2.520 WHIP) hasn’t looked ready to succeed against major league hitters after his move from Japan. Parker (4.91 ERA, 1.227 WHIP) hasn’t dazzled either, but he at least has yet to issue a walk and did put together four efficient innings against the Marlins earlier this week.

How do the Nationals continue to give Herz an opportunity to win the job while also being cognizant of his need for a slower-than-normal build up of his arm?

“We’ll keep an eye on him,” Martinez said. “We’re going to be awful careful, because we can. I know he’s vying for that fifth spot, but we’ve got to be smart. For him, and for us. … Let’s see what happens this week.”

Earlier in his career, Herz admits he might’ve panicked about his current dilemma. But having been through this enough now, at least at the minor league level, he knows there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. His velocity always comes back in the regular season, when the lights are brighter and the competition is for real.

“I’m saving all the good ones for when we get into the season,” he said with a nervous laugh. “I’m saving all the strikeouts for in-season.”

The only problem: At this rate, his season appears more likely to commence in Rochester than Washington.