Avila to Arizona could open door for Realmuto to D.C.

If it feels like we've been talking about J.T. Realmuto quite a bit this winter, well, we have. Such is the reality when you combine an awfully quiet offseason with one of the few positions the Nationals could try to upgrade with a Marlins franchise smack-dab in the middle of a fire sale.

We're talking about Realmuto again today, not because of anything the Nats or the Marlins did in the last 24 hours, but because of what the Diamondbacks did: sign Alex Avila. Arizona reportedly agreed to a deal - the terms of which have not yet been revealed - with Avila, bringing in the veteran catcher to address one of its biggest needs.

The Nationals, according to club sources, had interest in Avila, who with a .387 on-base percentage and .834 OPS was one of the best offensive catchers in the majors last season. The 31-year-old wouldn't have caught every day, but he would have shared time behind the plate with Matt Wieters and offered new manager Dave Martinez more of an offensive threat than he otherwise would have had in Wieters and young backup Pedro Severino.

So the news of Avila heading to the Diamondbacks instead could be viewed in a negative light here in D.C. Or it could be viewed in a different, more hopeful vein: Now that Arizona has upgraded its catching corps, the Nats are positioned as the clear frontrunner to acquire Realmuto from Miami.

That is, of course, contingent upon several factors that have been present throughout the winter ...

* Are the Marlins determined to trade Realmuto? He has made it clear he wants out after watching Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon all traded away this offseason, leaving precious few established cornerstones still standing in South Florida. But Miami isn't obligated to give the 26-year-old (who is under club control for another three seasons) what he wants, especially if the trade offer isn't good enough.

* How much are the Nationals willing to give up in exchange for Realmuto? Yes, he'd be an upgrade over the current stable of catchers, but he's not so big an upgrade that he's worth any price. The Marlins reportedly have asked for either of the Nats' top two outfield prospects: Victor Robles and Juan Soto. General manager Mike Rizzo has steadfastly refused to deal either of them for a good 18 months now, and it would be shocking if he suddenly caved now just to acquire a good-but-not-great catcher.

If the Marlins are willing to lower their asking price, the Nationals might just be able to pull this one off. But it really boils down to how desperate Miami is to make the deal.

The Nats like Realmuto, of that there's no doubt. But as we've seen countless times before, once Rizzo decides what he's willing to give up in a trade, he holds true to it. He doesn't cave.

Which means the ball is squarely in the Marlins' court. All the Nationals can do is wait and see what they do with it.