Better, worse or the same in 2018: Position players

Are the 2018 Nationals going to be better than the 2017 Nationals? Are they going to be worse? Are they going to be about the same?

When you really boil things down to the basics, that's what everyone is trying to figure out before the new season gets underway. Teams can improve or be diminished based on their offseason transactions, but change also is possible from returning players who either disappointed or overachieved last year.

Given how little the Nationals roster has changed since the last time we saw them assembled on a field, their fate in 2018 really does lie in the hands of their returning regulars. Some enjoyed career years in 2017. Some struggled and now are looking for a significant bounceback.

So over the next two days, we'll run through the roster, position by position, and try to determine the most likely change (or lack of change) from 2017 to 2018. It's time to play "Better, Worse or the Same" ...

CATCHER: Better
The Nationals' had the majors' least productive offensive catchers in 2017, so there really is nowhere for this to go but up. The pertinent question is whether Matt Wieters and Pedro Severino will account for the improvement, or whether it will be someone from the outside (ie. J.T. Realmuto). If general manager Mike Rizzo can convince the Marlins to drop their asking price for Realmuto and pull off a trade, the odds of significant improvement at the catching position should dramatically go up. But even if that doesn't happen, the odds of a Wieters/Severino tandem being at least moderately better than the Wieters/Jose Lobaton tandem of 2017 are pretty good. And if there isn't improvement come midsummer, you've got to think Rizzo then decides it's time to find an upgrade on the trade market.

FIRST BASE: Worse
This is the complete opposite of the catching situation. It's hard to imagine the Nats getting better at first base in 2018 simply because they were so good there in 2017. Ryan Zimmerman enjoyed a career year. And when he didn't play, Adam Lind stepped in and was highly productive himself. Put the two together, and the Nationals got a .914 OPS out of their first basemen last season, fourth-best in the majors. Could Zimmerman hit .303 with 36 homers and 108 RBIs again? Yeah, but the odds aren't in his favor. Even a modest drop in production - say, .280 with 25 homers and 85 RBIs - would still be pretty good, given his career trajectory. Matt Adams, meanwhile, will look to duplicate Lind's numbers after signing a one-year deal this winter.

SECOND BASE: Worse, maybe same
If Daniel Murphy wasn't returning from microfracture knee surgery, there'd be valid reason to expect similar production from last season. But because he is attempting to return from a significant procedure that does not have a proven track record of success, you have to acknowledge the possibility of a problem here. Maybe Murphy is good to go on opening day and puts up a .900 OPS again. Maybe he's not ready by opening day and has to miss the first few weeks of the season, putting pressure on Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo to perform. And maybe he's simply not the same hitter anymore. We won't know until we actually see him out there. So the hopeful view would conclude there's a chance the Nats get similar production at second base, but the realistic view would conclude there's a better chance the production will drop at least somewhat.

SHORTSTOP: Better
Injuries twice interrupted Trea Turner's season, leaving us only with some fleeting glimpses of his peak form. If he can avoid the DL this time around, though, there's every reason to believe he's going to find a consistent level of success at the plate and be the kind of all-around threat he was during his remarkable rookie season in 2016. Give Turner 600 plate appearances, and he might just be able to put up 20 homers, 30 doubles, 10 triples and 70 stolen bases. That would qualify as a significant improvement from the total production the Nats got from their shortstops (Turner, Difo, Stephen Drew) in 2017.

THIRD BASE: Same
We pretty much know at this point what Anthony Rendon is. He's good. Really good. The only thing that's ever really held him back has been injuries, most notably the knee injury suffered in the spring of 2015 that knocked him out for half the season. Average out his numbers from his three other full big league seasons, though, and you get a .286/.366/.483 slash line with 25 homers, 39 doubles, 89 RBIs and elite defense. What can we reasonably predict from Rendon in 2018? Probably a stat line very similar to that, making him one of the surest things on the Nationals roster.

LEFT FIELD: Better
As much as everyone loves Jayson Werth, let's be honest here. This is almost certainly going to be the position that sees the most improvement from 2017 to 2018. Werth at his best was really good, and really valuable. But he wasn't close to his best last year, and he simply isn't going to rediscover that form again. Adam Eaton, on the other hand, is poised to show everyone exactly why Rizzo was willing to give up three pitching prospects to acquire him one year ago. Eaton does have to get over the physical and mental hurdle of returning from a torn ACL, so there is some uncertainty here. But there's more reason to expect a full recovery and return to his pre-injury form than the alternative. And even if there are some problems along the way, Kendrick could step right in and put up his typically effective offensive numbers in Eaton's place. (The defensive upgrade from Werth to Eaton also is going to be noticeable, by the way.)

CENTER FIELD: Who knows?
This is easily the biggest question mark in the Nationals lineup. How can you say with absolute certainty you know what you're going to get from Michael A. Taylor in 2018? Was his breakthrough performance last season a legitimate indicator of the player he now will be year-in and year-out? Or was that only a taste of it, with Taylor primed to be even better now that he has a good year under his belt? Or was the best he's ever going to be, setting up a fall back to the Taylor we saw in previous seasons? There's really no way to know. Throw in the Victor Robles factor, and this is the least certain position on the field for the Nats heading into spring training.

RIGHT FIELD: Same, maybe better
Here's what we know: If he's healthy, Bryce Harper is going to have a monster season. The only thing that has held him back at all in his career has been health, whether a knee injury he tried to play through in 2013, a thumb injury that knocked him out for two months in 2014, a neck issue that negatively affected him in 2016 and the scary knee injury that derailed what had been a brilliant 2017. Here's what we also know: Harper has all the motivation in the world to be a monster this season, with a record-setting payday hanging in the balance next winter. It will be interesting to see if he goes out of his way to try to keep himself on the field, whether consciously or subconsciously taking his foot off the gas pedal and not taking chances that might result in injury. Whatever the case, this is going to be the most-watched and scrutinized season of Harper's career.