Better, worse or the same in 2019: Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at each of the Nationals' position players and asked if they are likely to be better, worse or the same in 2019. Today we'll do the same exercise with the club's pitching staff.

In some cases, this is simply about one player and examining his chances for improvement or regression from last year. But in some cases, this is about a specific role on the staff and whether or not the club has adequately improved the position so far this winter.

Again, there's still time for things to change. More moves will be made before the start of spring training. But for now let's look at where the Nationals' pitching staff stands as currently constructed ...

NO. 1 STARTER: Same, maybe worse
Max Scherzer believes 2018 was the best season of his career. Stop for a moment and really think about that, because it's remarkable to consider given the mountains of success he had prior to 2018. Scherzer's not wrong, though. He raised his strikeout rate, lowered his walk and home run rates and maintained almost an identical ERA and WHIP from his Cy Young Award-winning performance in 2017. So what can we expect in 2019? Well, here's his yearly ERA in four seasons with the Nationals: 2.79, 2.96, 2.51, 2.53. And here are his yearly WHIPs during these four seasons: 0.918, 0.968, 0.902, 0.911. Is it too much to ask for more of the same? The only reason for any amount of skepticism is Father Time. Scherzer turns 35 this summer. He has avoided any kind of significant injury for 10 seasons now, having made at least 30 starts every single year. One of these years, that streak is going to end. Maybe it'll be this year. But who among you is willing to make that bet?

NO. 2 STARTER: Same, maybe better
Like Scherzer, we pretty much know what Stephen Strasburg is at this point. He's going to be great at times, merely OK at other times and most likely injured at some point. He has made 22 to 28 starts each of the last four seasons, so you can't just assume he's good for 30 this time around. It's possible, which is why you have to leave open the chance he's better simply by virtue of doing more work. But you can't assume it. The key for Strasburg will be to maximize those 25 or so starts he does make, to not let any seemingly minor ailments balloon into bigger injuries and to make sure he's on the mound for the starts that mean the most to this team.

NO. 3 STARTER: Better
The Gio Gonzalez Era is over, and the Patrick Corbin Era is now just beginning. The Nationals paid an awful lot of money to Corbin to assume this role, but it has the potential to make a major difference. Even at his very best, Gonzalez was a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a knack for pitching his way out of trouble but always teetering on the brink of disaster. Corbin - if you believe his 2018 was a breakthrough and not a blip - is a legitimate frontline starter who both churns out innings and misses bats. Strasburg could have a very good year, and Corbin still might end up being better. Is there a chance last season was a fluke and the left-hander is going to turn into a $140 million bust? Yeah, it's possible. But the Nationals didn't just randomly sign this guy. They did their homework, and they believe he's the real deal. We'll find out soon enough.

NO. 4 STARTER: Could go either way
Perhaps the Nationals' biggest gamble of the offseason was trading Tanner Roark to the Reds and signing Aníbal Sánchez to take over that slot in the rotation. Essentially, club officials are banking on Sánchez contributing more for the $8 million he's guaranteed in 2019 than Roark would've contributed for the $10 million he'll now make in Cincinnati. Based on their respective performances in 2018, this is a no-brainer. Sánchez (2.83 ERA, 1.083 WHIP) was much better than Roark (4.34 ERA, 1.281 WHIP). But Sánchez rebounded from awful showings in 2016-17. And Roark is only two years removed from earning Cy Young Award votes. He's three years younger than Sánchez. And he has averaged 31 starts to Sánchez's 22 starts over the last three seasons. Perhaps Sánchez figured something out last year in Atlanta and has resurrected himself as a new pitcher. If so, he'll be an improvement. But perhaps he reverts to 2016-17 form and also misses time with an injury, while Roark makes his usual 31 starts and rebounds in Cincinnati. This one will be fascinating to monitor all season long.

NO. 5 STARTER: Worse, for now
The Nationals got 30 starts last season from Jeremy Hellickson and Erick Fedde. They combined for a 4.19 ERA and 1.235 WHIP. Hellickson was quite good (when healthy). Fedde was quite erratic when filling in. As things currently stand, Hellickson is a free agent and the Nats are hoping Fedde and Joe Ross can hold down this position. There's potential there for improvement, especially if Ross (now 1 1/2 years removed from Tommy John surgery) can pitch like he did in 2015-16 (3.52 ERA, 1.222 WHIP in 181 2/3 innings). But he's far from a sure thing, and the same holds true for Fedde (owner of a 6.44 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 14 career starts). That's why the Nationals continue to look for a more established alternative. Maybe they lure Hellickson back. Maybe they sign Wide Miley or another veteran who's still on the open market. This may not happen anytime soon; remember they didn't sign Hellickson until mid-March 2018. So it's hard to say at this moment where this position will stand come opening day. But for now, it's a valid concern.

CLOSER: Better
Sean Doolittle arguably was the best reliever in the majors last season. Seriously. He had a 1.60 ERA. He converted 25 of 26 save opportunities. He allowed only 21 hits in 45 innings, with opponents compiling a .391 OPS. And he struck out 60 batters while walking only six. That's absolutely dynamite. The problem: He missed two months with what at the time seemed like a harmless foot injury. Doolittle insists there's no reason to worry about lingering problems this year. So if he can avoid the disabled list and make 60-plus appearances, the Nationals will be 100 percent set in the ninth inning.

SETUP MEN: Could go either way
This position has been completely overhauled in the last year. The Nationals thought they were set in 2018 with Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler setting up Doolittle and collectively forming The Law Firm bullpen. It didn't work out nearly as well as planned, and both Madson and Kintzler were traded during the summer. The Nats have since acquired Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough to take over those roles. If Rosenthal fully returns from Tommy John surgery and resembles his elite-closer self from his time in St. Louis, and if Barraclough is the big-arm righty he usually was in Miami, this has the potential to be a very good group of setup men. But neither is a sure thing. If one or both falter, the Nationals are not well positioned to make up for it. That makes this an especially volatile position heading into the season.

OTHER LEFT-HANDERS: Same
The Nationals carried three lefties in addition to Doolittle for most of the 2018 season. They opened with Matt Grace, Sammy Solís and Enny Romero. Romero quickly was dumped in favor of Tim Collins. Grace proved effective in a variety of roles. Collins had some moments along the way but had some blowups as well. Solís was an unmitigated disaster. Fast-forward to Jan. 18, 2019 and the Nationals are still counting on Grace and Solís but have parted with Collins. It sure feels like they need another lefty before this is all said and done. Fortunately, there remain several experienced southpaws on the market. It's just a matter of working out a deal with one of them. (The club added Vidal Nuño on a minor league deal Thursday night.) If the Nats can pull that off, there's good potential for improvement here. If not, it's probably more of the same. Which wasn't good enough in 2018.

OTHER RIGHT-HANDERS: Same, maybe worse
The Nationals used a bunch of righties last season beyond Madson and Kintzler. Justin Miller, Wander Suero, Shawn Kelley, Greg Holland, Trevor Gott, Jimmy Cordero, Kelvin Herrera and Koda Glover all made at least 20 appearances, to varying degrees of success. Veterans Kelley, Holland and Herrera are now gone. That leaves a group headlined by Miller, Suero and Glover to carry the heavy lifting this season. They may prove to be effective. Each one of them offers legitimate potential. Again, though, all are unknown quantities right now. (In case you haven't figured it out by now, the Nationals bullpen appears by far to be the club's biggest question mark at the moment.)