WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It’s been a long winter. And it may be a very long summer back home in D.C. as the Nationals navigate their way through another rebuilding season.

But if ever there’s a time for optimism, this is it. It’s the first day of spring training, and while there’s little reason to believe the 2023 Nationals are going to be dramatically better than the 2022 Nationals were, they begin today with a clean slate and at least the hope of better things to come.

There are six weeks to prepare for a March 30 Opening Day date with the Braves. Much can and will happen between now and then, some of it expected, some of it unexpected.

Here’s what to expect on day one …

With some pitchers and catchers still getting their physicals completed, the day actually will get off to a later start than usual. Most days, the team will take the back fields behind The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches a little after 9 a.m. for Davey Martinez’s “Circle of Trust” meeting, then stretch and workouts. But for day one, that meeting won’t begin until 12:45 p.m., so the first workout of the spring will be an afternoon affair.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We conclude today with the No. 1 issue that continues to hover over the entire franchise: the state of ownership …

When the Lerner family first let it be known publicly last April it was exploring a possible sale of the Nationals, the surprised reaction across the organization and throughout the baseball world was genuine. There had never been any prior indication the family had ever considered selling the team it purchased in 2006. It would continue to be handed down from one generation to the next, solidifying itself as a true Washington institution.

Ten months later, the greater surprise is the fact the Lerners still own the Nationals, with little reason to believe that’s going to change in the near future.

What figured to be a robust and timely process instead has dragged on nearly a full year. And as pitchers and catchers officially report to West Palm Beach, Fla., today for the start of spring training, the uncertain long-term state of ownership still looms large over everything.

The situation became even more uncertain Monday following the news of family patriarch Ted Lerner’s death at 97. Though the elder Lerner had ceded day-to-day control of the franchise to his son Mark nearly five years ago, he still was part of every major decision made by the ownership group. The sale process would not have happened without his full endorsement.

Theodore N. Lerner, the onetime usher at Griffith Stadium who went on to build a local real estate empire, then purchase the Nationals from Major League Baseball and watch the franchise win its first World Series title, has died. He was 97.

Mr. Lerner’s death, which came two days before pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training, was announced by the club this morning.

“It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of Founding Managing Principal Owner, Theodore N. Lerner,” the Nationals said in a statement. “The crowning achievement of his family business was bringing baseball back to the city he loved - and with it, bringing a championship home for the first time since 1924. He cherished the franchise and what it brought to his beloved hometown.”

A lifelong Washingtonian who grew up rooting for local sports teams, Mr. Lerner was born Oct. 15, 1925, the same day the Senators lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Pirates, one year after the franchise won its one and only championship. He attended occasional games as a child and became a ballpark usher as a teenager, then like so many other area baseball fans was heartbroken when the second incarnation of the Senators relocated to Texas following the 1971 season.

By then, Mr. Lerner was already two decades into his professional career, having founded Lerner Enterprises in 1952 off a $250 loan from his wife, Annette, and built it into the largest private real estate company in the region.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We continue today with a look at a rotation that is counting on the healthy return of multiple starters …

If the Nationals are going to show significant improvement in 2023, if this franchise is going to take a big step forward in its rebuilding process this year, it is almost certainly going to coincide with a major turnaround from what was the majors’ worst rotation in 2022.

What used to be the organization’s unquestioned strength was its unquestioned No. 1 weakness last season. The rotation finished with an abysmal 5.97 ERA, an abysmal 30-86 record and a 1.563 WHIP that was the worst mark by any major league rotation since the 2012 Rockies.

How could the situation improve this season? The best hope comes in the form of two young potential building blocks with all the ability in the world but little track record, at least while wearing a Nationals uniform.

Cade Cavalli made one start for the Nats last year. MacKenzie Gore made none. That won’t be the case this year. If it is, the franchise is in serious trouble.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We continue today with a look at players not on the team’s 40-man roster who might still have a shot to make the Opening Day roster …

For a team coming off a miserable, 107-loss season, the Nationals don’t appear to have that many jobs up for grabs this spring. Assuming perfect health – it’s never a good idea to assume perfect health, by the way – we could probably pencil in nine everyday position players, five starting pitchers, at least four relievers and a couple bench guys before anyone has officially reported to West Palm Beach.

Which isn’t to suggest there can’t still be some surprises in store over the next six weeks. Or that everyone who heads north with the club has to come from the pre-existing 40-man roster.

The Nats haven’t formally announced how many players in total will be in big league camp, but we already know there will be a healthy number of players invited to compete who signed non-guaranteed, minor league deals over the winter. Some of them, actually, are very well-known players, including a couple with significant recent history with this organization.

None of these players is assured of a job come March 30, but all of them should have a legitimate chance to make their case to the coaching staff and front office this spring. And if anybody does enough to stand out from the crowd, there’s ample reason to believe a roster spot or two could be created for them.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We begin today with a storyline that will impact every major league club this year: The implementation of several dramatic rule changes …

As long as baseball has existed, what has distinguished it from every other prominent team sport? No clock.

As long as anyone can remember, what has remained constant in this sport? The size of the bases.

As long as teams have been trying to record outs in the field, where have the seven players behind the pitcher positioned themselves? Anywhere they want, so long as they set up in fair territory.

Until now.

Well, we're almost there now. Pitchers and catchers (and yours truly) report to West Palm Beach in five days, with the first workout of the spring to come the following afternoon. A long, mostly uneventful winter has nearly come to an end, and the prospect of actual baseball is tantalizingly close at last.

We'll have plenty of spring training preview material in the coming days, but first let's take one last opportunity to answer your questions on the offseason, the upcoming season or anything else that catches your fancy. Preferably, it would be baseball-related.

As always, submit your questions in the comments section below, then check back throughout the morning for my replies ...

Fifty-five players appeared in a game for the Nationals last season, and six of them made their major league debuts in the process.

At least one of those debuts, by Cade Cavalli, was both expected and promoted. The others, though, came as something of a surprise, whether it was Lucius Fox making the Opening Day roster, Jackson Tetreault and Evan Lee getting summoned to start big league games after others got hurt, Israel Pineda getting a September call-up or Joey Meneses finally making it at age 30.

A 162-game season is full of twists and turns, and the 2022 season had no shortage of those from the Nationals’ perspective. And there’s every reason to believe the 2023 season will feature a number of debuts, of both the expected and the unexpected variety.

Who might we see don a curly W cap for the first time?

The likeliest candidate among the organization’s top prospects is Robert Hassell III, though the 21-year-old outfielder is hardly a lock to make it to D.C. this season.

There’s still time for things to change – for the team to sign another player or two, for others to make the club off minor-league deals, for someone to get hurt – but with eight days to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, we have a pretty good idea what the Nationals’ payroll is going to look like this season.

What it’s going to look like: A lot less than we’ve been accustomed to seeing from this franchise over the last decade.

Monday’s announcement that Victor Robles had avoided arbitration and agreed to a $2.325 million salary was the final significant piece to the puzzle. At this point, everybody who figures to make the Nats’ Opening Day roster either has a set salary or will be making close to the league minimum of $720,000.

And when you add up the salaries of the projected 26-man roster, plus a couple guys who will probably begin the season on the injured list, you get a grand total of $99,291,667. That’s a dramatic drop-off in salary commitments in the span of only two years.

The 2021 Nationals boasted an Opening Day payroll of $183,122,247, which ranked sixth out of 30 Major League Baseball clubs, according to Cot’s Contracts. That marked the ninth consecutive season they ranked among the top 11 teams in the sport in Opening Day payroll, the highest number coming in 2019 when they ranked fourth with a payroll of $197,203,691.

For the second straight year, the Nationals and Victor Robles filed for arbitration. And for the second straight year, they ultimately avoided an actual arbitration hearing, agreeing to a salary figure before reaching the courtroom.

The Nats announced today they settled with Robles on a one-year contract for 2023, while also agreeing to a club option for 2024.

The deal establishes a $2.325 million salary for Robles this season, according to the Associated Press, only slightly more than the $2.3 million the team was offering him through arbitration. Robles had been seeking $2.6 million, with a hearing before a three-judge panel set to take place in the coming days. 

This whole process, of course, was quite familiar to both parties. One year ago, Robles and the Nationals filed for arbitration, the player seeking $2.1 million while the team offered $1.6 million. They wound up settling at $1.65 million before going to a hearing.

Robles proceeded to labor through another frustrating season, batting a mere .224 with six homers, 33 RBIs, a .273 on-base percentage and career-worst .584 OPS across 407 plate appearances. He did rediscover his top defensive form in center field, finishing with 12 Defensive Runs Saved while being named a finalist for the Gold Glove Award.

As the start of spring training gets closer and closer – pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in a mere nine days! – we’re looking at how unpredictable the upcoming season could be for each member of the Nationals’ potential roster on an individual basis.

With few established players that look like sure things entering the year, there’s a wide variance of possibilities in each case. We looked at the nine likely members of the lineup Friday. Today, we look at the pitchers most likely to be in the mix for spots on the Opening Day roster.

Here’s the best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2023 season for each of them …

MACKENZIE GORE
Best case: His elbow back to full health, the lefty picks up where he left off during the first half of last season in San Diego. Over 30 starts, he maintains an ERA around 3.00, striking out more than one batter per inning and establishing himself as the young leader of this rotation moving forward.
Worst case: A return of elbow discomfort would really be worst-case, but even if his arm feels fine there’s still a fear of diminished velocity and stamina. A fastball in the low 90s, combined with less-than-ideal command, could leave the Nationals questioning if he really will live up to his billing long-term.

CADE CAVALLI
Best case: Fresh off a restful winter, with his major league debut already behind him, Cavalli proves he’s ready to stick in the big league for the long haul. The Nats are still careful with his workload, limiting him to 26 starts or 140 innings, but he makes the most of those outings with a sub-3.50 ERA and more than 150 strikeouts.
Worst case: Even with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, if he doesn’t maintain precise command, big league hitters will have success off that pitch. His secondary stuff helps bail him out sometimes, but a high WHIP leaves him looking like something less than a frontline starter.

The Nationals have added another experienced starter to a rotation depth chart that was lacking in that department, signing right-hander Chad Kuhl to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league camp later this month.

Kuhl, 30, has made 111 major league starts, the first 84 of which came for the Pirates from 2016-21. He spent last season with the Rockies, struggling to a 6-11 record and 5.72 ERA in 27 starts, though he did toss a three-hit shutout over the Dodgers on June 27 at Coors Field.

Kuhl actually totaled eight quality starts for Colorado, only one fewer than Patrick Corbin and Josiah Gray produced for the Nationals.

Somewhat surprisingly, though, the right-hander fared worse on the road than he did at home, going 3-7 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.693 WHIP away from Coors Field while going 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.399 WHIP at mile-high altitude.

During his five seasons in Pittsburgh, Kuhl went 25-30 with a 4.44 ERA. His best performance came in 2017, when he went 8-11 with a 4.35 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 31 starts.

It’s never easy trying to predict how any ballplayer is going to perform in the coming season, but it feels like an especially difficult task trying to guess how the members of the Nationals’ projected lineup will perform in 2023.

Seriously, is there one sure thing in the entire group? One guy you can definitively say will reach certain statistical mileposts? It sure doesn’t look like it.

On the bright side, there’s the possibility for a lot of these players to have big seasons, whether youngsters realizing their potential or experienced hitters finding the form they displayed only a few years ago. On the down side, there’s also the possibility of complete disaster, from flash-in-the-pan candidates to supposedly highly touted youngsters failing to take that critical next step and enjoy success in the majors.

There’s a wide variance of possibilities for the 2023 Nationals lineup. You can see that when running through each player’s potential best-case and worst-case scenario for the coming year …

KEIBERT RUIZ
Best case: Up to 120 games started, with a batting average over .275, an increase in power to get his slugging percentage over .400, one of the highest caught-stealing percentages in the league and his first career All-Star selection.
Worst case: Nagging injuries prevent him from catching 100 games, he makes too much weak contact and bats .250 again with a .360 slugging percentage. Loses his magic touch behind the plate and tries to compensate by throwing too many balls away for costly errors.

The Nationals added another experienced pitcher to their growing spring training roster Tuesday, signing right-hander Wily Peralta to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.

Peralta, 33, joins an expanding list of veterans who will get a chance to compete for a spot on the Opening Day pitching staff, his addition coming on the heels of a comparable minor league contract given to reliever Alex Colome late last week.

It remains to be seen what kind of role the Nationals have in mind for Peralta, who has been a starter most of his career but pitched out of the bullpen last season for the Tigers.

A 17-game winner for the Brewers in 2014, Peralta has spent his entire career pitching in the Midwest. After six seasons in Milwaukee, he went to Kansas City in 2018 and served as a reliever for the Royals for two seasons. He then moved on to Detroit, initially signing minor league deals prior to both the 2021 and 2022 seasons but pitching his way onto the big league roster in each case.

Peralta compiled some disparate stats in 28 appearances last year. He posted an impressive 2.58 ERA but did so while seeing his WHIP climb to 1.513. The biggest problem: He walked 24 batters in only 38 1/3 innings.

There was a time, believe it or not, when Joe Ross looked like he might prove just as valuable to the Nationals as Trea Turner. Maybe even more so.

When Mike Rizzo swooped into trade talks between the Rays and Padres in December 2014 and helped those two teams complete a deal that sent Wil Myers to San Diego and several prospects to Tampa Bay, most attention was focused on Turner, who couldn’t even officially be part of the trade for another six months because he had just been drafted that year.

But Ross was no secondary piece. A first-round pick of the Padres himself, the right-hander was a highly touted prospect in his own right, and after posting impressive numbers at every level of the minors he earned a promotion to D.C. in June 2015.

Three starts into his big league career, Ross had two wins, a 2.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. And by the end of the 2016 season, just as Turner was beginning to make a name for himself as a dynamic center fielder for the Nats, Ross was the proud owner of a 12-10 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.222 WHIP across 181 2/3 innings.

He looked like he was going to entrench himself as a key part of a star-studded Nationals rotation for years to come.

When he made the decision in July to have a relatively new and somewhat unproven procedure on his injured left elbow, Sean Doolittle was confident he’d be ready to pitch again come spring training. But because he was going to be a free agent at season’s end, he figured he’d still be unemployed in late-January, hoping he could show enough progress in his rehab to convince some club to sign him shortly before camps opened.

Instead, Doolittle found himself last week packing his things for an early departure to West Palm Beach, Fla. The left-hander and his wife, Eireen Dolan, are about to report to camp two weeks before pitchers and catchers are required to arrive, having known since early-November he was returning to the Nationals on a minor league deal with a good shot to make the Opening Day roster.

“It was a bit of a surprise,” Doolittle said in an interview for MASN’s Nationals Hot Stove Show. “I was mentally prepared to go through the offseason and then have to show teams I was ready for camp sometime in January or early-February. Maybe do like a showcase bullpen, or something like that. So it was best-case scenario when they reached out.”

Knowing he wouldn’t need to worry about where he was going to pitch in 2023, Doolittle instead spent all winter preparing himself to pitch again. After completing a five-month rehab program following the internal brace procedure he underwent in July, he began throwing off a bullpen mound just after Christmas. He has since thrown about 10 more, gradually increasing the volume and the intensity of his pitches.

All of which should leave Doolittle reporting for camp in shape no different than any other healthy pitcher on the roster.

In some respects, the Nationals’ signing of veteran reliever Alex Colomé to a minor league deal Friday makes perfect sense. Why wouldn’t this team take a chance on a 34-year-old with 159 saves and a 3.34 ERA over 446 career big league appearances, especially on a contract that won’t cost them anything unless he makes the club out of spring training?

But will he actually make the club? Is there room for Colomé in a bullpen that already looked plenty deep on paper prior to his signing?

The unquestioned strength of the Nationals during a dismal 2022 season, the bullpen returns almost entirely intact in 2023. Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr. and Hunter Harvey all avoided arbitration and agreed to affordable one-year deals. Erasmo Ramirez, so valuable last season as a jack of all trades, re-signed for a guaranteed $1 million, with the possibility of earning another $1 million in incentives.

Mason Thompson, who impressed in limited big league time last season, is back and should be given a good look as a potential long-term piece. Thad Ward, the top pick in the Rule 5 draft, has to make the team and stay in the majors or else be offered back to the Red Sox. And conventional wisdom suggests the Nats will keep either Paolo Espino or Cory Abbott as a long reliever and emergency starter.

So that’s seven spots right there, and we haven’t even mentioned Sean Doolittle, attempting to return from an elbow procedure and serve as the only left-hander in the 'pen. Or Victor Arano and Jordan Weems, who seemingly are in the mix but are likely saddled by the fact each still has minor league options.

The Nationals added another experienced reliever this afternoon to what already looked like a deep bullpen, signing veteran right-hander Alex Colomé to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.

Colomé, 34, isn’t guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster and will have to prove himself during spring training. But his lengthy track record as a late-inning reliever should give him a leg up over others trying to break camp with the club.

The Nationals have long been intrigued by Colomé, his name having come up several times in the past when they were searching for late-inning help at the trade deadline. Only now, on the heels of back-to-back rough seasons with the Twins and Rockies, is he finally joining the club.

Owner of 159 career saves, Colomé was an All-Star with a 1.91 ERA in 2016 and closed out 47 games for the Rays in 2017, leading the league.

Traded the following year to the Mariners – along with former Nationals center fielder Denard Span – he continued to enjoy success in Seattle and then in Chicago with the White Sox. At the end of the 2020 season, he sported a 2.95 ERA and 1.177 WHIP across 326 big league appearances.

The Nationals’ moves so far this winter have almost exclusively involved one-year deals. Only right-hander Trevor Williams (two years, $13 million) got more than a one-year commitment from the Nats, who signed Jeimer Candelario ($5 million), Corey Dickerson ($2.25 million) and Dominic Smith ($2 million) each to short-term contracts.

There are no bad one-year deals. So say many baseball executives, justifying even the high-salary contracts to players who don’t pan out as worthy because of the lack of the kind of long-term commitment that can hamper a franchise.

Some one-year deals, however, are better than others. Sometimes, a team can turn a minimal payout into quality production (and maybe even flip a player at the trade deadline for a prospect). And sometimes, a team can waste a large chunk of money on a guy who doesn’t live up to his potential and loses whatever trade value he might have had.

The Nationals have signed plenty of free agents to one-year deals in their history. Which were the best? Which were the worst? (Note: We’re only talking about free agents who played somewhere else the previous season and signed major league contracts with the Nats. No players who re-signed, and no players who signed minor league contracts included for these purposes.)

Here’s one humble reporter’s take …

After a dismal year in D.C., César Hernández will try to resurrect his career by making Detroit’s roster off a minor league deal.

Hernández agreed to a non-guaranteed contract with an invitation to big league camp Wednesday, according to multiple reports. If he makes the Tigers’ roster, he’ll earn a $1.5 million salary, with the possibility of another $1.85 million in performance bonuses.

It’s a steep drop-off in financial security for the 32-year-old infielder, who got a $4 million major league deal with the Nationals last winter and was handed the Opening Day job at second base.

Hernández never lived up to the billing. His .629 OPS was his lowest since 2014, when he was still trying to make it with the Phillies. After launching 21 homers for the White Sox and Cleveland in 2021, he homered just once for the Nats, and that blast didn’t come until Sept. 4 in his 124th game played.

In spite of his struggles, Hernández actually took more plate appearances than any other member of the Nationals last season, coming up to bat 617 times. He remained the everyday second baseman into late August, at which point the team was finally ready to go with a young middle infield combo of CJ Abrams and Luis García. Hernández wound up seeing some playing time in left field down the stretch.