Can the Orioles clinch today?

NEW YORK - The Orioles never should have beaten the Giants on Aug. 14 after falling behind by six runs approaching the seventh inning. They weren't supposed to get a pinch-hit two-run homer from Hyun Soo Kim in the ninth inning last week to rally past the Blue Jays.

They've won games they were set up to lose. They lost a game yesterday that they should have won.

It's easier to accept baseball's balancing act when the defeat doesn't happen in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Manager Buck Showalter got six innings of two-run ball and 99 pitches out of Wade Miley and decided to bring back the veteran left-hander for the seventh. He already rolled the dice by sticking with Miley in the sixth after back-to-back two-out singles and Chase Headley's RBI double, and it paid off with a three-pitch strikeout of Austin Romine.

The Orioles still held a 3-2 lead with the baton ready to be passed. The decision will be second-guessed for a while - and much longer if the Orioles miss the playoffs or must fly to Toronto for the wild card game.

The Jays moved back into a tie with the Orioles for the first wild card. The Tigers lost to the Braves and are 1 1/2 behind. They've got two left, including Monday's makeup. The Mariners are done.

An Orioles win on Sunday puts them in the playoffs. The uncertain part is whether they would be at home or in Canada because the Jays hold the tiebreaker.

According to USA Today, a three-way tie would lead to the Blue Jays and Tigers playing Tuesday and the winner going to Camden Yards on Wednesday. The Orioles reportedly have decided to play one home game instead of two road games.

But one headache at a time.

Kevin Gausman, the young pitcher who needed to take "the next step" this season, is starting the biggest game of the season. He's allowed 10 runs (nine earned) and 17 hits over 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts since tossing eight scoreless innings at Fenway Park.

There's no way you avoid giving him the ball today after he's held the Yankees to three runs in 33 2/3 innings in five starts this season. He's walked five batters and struck out 32.

Gausman is 5-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 16 career games (10 starts) versus the Yankees and 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in eight games (five starts) in the Bronx.

You lean heavily on the track record and take your chances. You also use anyone and everyone out of the bullpen if necessary. All arms on deck.

Jacoby Ellsbury is 4-for-27 against Gausman. Brian McCann is 4-for-24 and Didi Gregorius is 3-for-20.

Mark Teixeira, playing his final game before retirement, is 4-for-19 with a home run and six strikeouts.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi is countering with rookie Luis Cessa, who's 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 16 games over 64 2/3 innings. He's making his ninth start since entering the rotation on Aug. 20.

Cessa is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 46 innings as a starter. He faced the Orioles on Aug. 26 and allowed three runs and five hits in six innings in a 14-4 win.

Manny Machado homered twice off Cessa, who has a 3.27 ERA in eight road games and a 5.12 ERA in eight home games.

I've got a suitcase that's packed for a possible flight to Toronto. Whether I use my train ticket home late Sunday night is TBD.