Cavalli close to ramping up again after bout of flu, dead arm

Cade Cavalli hoped all along to make his return from Tommy John surgery in June. And if not June, at least by July. But as the clock continues to tick and the right-hander still finds himself waiting to restart the latest phase of his extensive rehab program, it has become clear the Nationals are only going to be able to get a handful of big league starts out of their 2020 first-round pick before season’s end.

Cavalli, who had elbow ligament replacement surgery in March 2023, has made only three official minor league rehab starts, none since June 21 for Single-A Wilmington. In the month since that outing – he tossed three scoreless, hitless innings – he has been sidetracked both by the flu and a period in which he experienced “dead arm” when he threw.

The dead arm period, which manager Davey Martinez revealed for the first time today, prompted the Nats to further delay Cavalli’s throwing progression.

“We just wanted to keep him down, and honestly slow him down a little bit,” Martinez said. “He had that dead arm for a little while. And him being sick, we just didn’t want to push him. … It’s one of those things, he’s so young and he’s a big part of our future. We want to make sure we do everything right for the kid. We talked to him. He was in agreement. He wanted to take a little bit of a break, and then we’ll go from there.”

Cavalli, who turns 26 next month, remains in D.C. with the Nationals. He’s scheduled to go to West Palm Beach, Fla., next week and start his progression all over again, throwing off flat ground, then off a mound, then against live hitters before he goes on another rehab assignment.

If everything goes according to plan from here, Cavalli likely wouldn’t be ready to pitch in the big leagues until September, at which point he’d be limited to a handful of starts before season’s end. For an organization that has had high hopes for the right-hander since the day he was drafted but has to date only seen him make one major league start, it could leave plenty of questions unanswered heading into the offseason.

With Josiah Gray set to have elbow surgery Wednesday in Dallas and likely to miss some, if not most, of next season, the Nationals could head into 2025 with a rotation of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and a (hopefully) healthy Cavalli. Club officials could decide an experienced starting pitcher is an offseason priority, whether via free agency or trade.

The more they can see of Cavalli between now and then, the more the Nats will know what they actually have in their 2020 first-round pick.

“We would like to get him on the mound and competing at least … I can’t say how many starts, because if we need him, we’ve kind of had innings in our mind not to exceed,” Martinez said. “I think if he’s back, we’ll give him enough innings to get him going, get him ramped up and then have a good winter and come back ready to be part of the (starting) five next year.”