The last time the Nationals found themselves in this position - 95-plus losses, a franchise rebuild - Mike Rizzo had just completed his first season as a major league general manager. His 2009 club was a mess, a 103-loss train wreck made up of parts left over from Jim Bowden's tumultuous tenure, with an in-season managerial change (Manny Acta to Jim Riggleman) but a No. 1 overall pick ready to be spent on a once-in-a-generation right-hander from San Diego.
In discussing his decision to embark on his first rebuild since then earlier this summer, Rizzo insisted this current version of the Nationals was starting out in a better position than that one did. And to be sure, the Nationals didn't have anyone like Juan Soto in 2009.
They weren't completely lacking in talent, though. Ryan Zimmerman was coming off what arguably still is the best season of his career (33 homers, 106 RBIs, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards at third base). Adam Dunn had 38 homers, 105 RBIs and 116 walks of his own, and Josh Willingham had 24 homers to go along with an .863 OPS.
What the Nats didn't have back then was much of a semblance of a pitching staff. John Lannan was the only person to make at least 20 starts in 2009. Everyone else (Jordan Zimmermann, Craig Stammen, Garrett Mock, Shairon Martis, J.D. Martin, Ross Detwiler, Scott Olsen) had elevated ERAs or major injuries to overcome.
So how did Rizzo address that problem area heading into the 2010 season? He acquired several veterans on short-term deals to help bridge the gap until younger alternatives were ready. He signed Jason Marquis to a two-year, $15 million contract. He took a flyer on a rehabbing Chien-Ming Wang. He brought fan and clubhouse favorite Liván Hernández back on a minor league deal. And he signed Matt Capps, who had been let go by the Pirates, for a modest $3.5 million to be his closer.
There were other moves in an attempt to bolster the lineup, bench and bullpen with veterans: Infielder Adam Kennedy, outfielder Willy Taveras, relievers Miguel Batista, Tyler Walker and Joel Peralta, and the somewhat surprising addition of a Hall of Fame catcher in Iván RodrÃguez to help guide the staff.
Some of those moves worked out. Plenty did not. By the end of the 2010 season, the Nationals had improved by 10 games (finishing 69-93) and had a roster featuring several young players who would become the foundation of their 98-win division championship team two years later: Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos (acquired for Capps, who was brilliantly flipped by Rizzo at the trade deadline), Michael Morse, Stephen Strasburg, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Sean Burnett, and both Zimmerman and Zimmermann (who returned from Tommy John surgery in September).
Truly, it proved to be the beginning of a new era of winning baseball in D.C., one that would last a full decade before this summer's teardown.
And it perhaps offers a primer on how we could expect Rizzo to approach this offseason. Ultimately, this team's chances of returning to contention in a few years will depend on the development of young players like Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Riley Adams, Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom, Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, Brady House and others to come.
But in the meantime, don't be surprised if Rizzo tries to supplement what he already has with a handful of experienced players who can help fill the gaps. Last time, his lineup was built around Zimmerman and Dunn. Now it's Soto and Josh Bell (who, like Dunn in 2010, is entering his contract year). A couple more veterans would help round out the lineup the way RodrÃguez and Kennedy did back then.
And a couple of experienced pitchers would make a world of difference right now, much as Hernández and Capps did back in 2010, and much as the Nats hoped Marquis and Wang would before both fizzled out.
The intention isn't so much to build a roster capable of contending in 2022 as it is building a roster capable of improving from 2021 and buying time for legitimate long-term pieces to emerge, with perhaps a big-ticket addition to come next winter (a la Jayson Werth in December 2010).
Maybe it's naïve, even foolhardy, to assume history can repeat itself all these years later. And maybe Rizzo has something entirely different up his sleeve this time.
But if we're trying to search back into relatively recent history to find a road map for what's about to come around here, the 2009-10 offseason sure looks like a good place to start.
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