How can Finnegan sustain All-Star form through season's end?

PLAYER REVIEW: KYLE FINNEGAN

Age on Opening Day 2025: 33

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2019

MLB service time: 5 years

2024 salary: $5.1 million

Contract status: Arbitration-eligible, free agent in 2026

2024 stats: 3-8, 3.68 ERA, 65 G, 38 SV, 63.2 IP, 61 H, 31 R, 26 ER, 9 HR, 24 BB, 60 SO, 0 HBP, 1.335 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 4.25 FIP, 0.9 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR

Quotable: “Another year of health. I think that’s been something I really pride myself in: Taking the ball every time I can and staying off the IL. The best way to help your team is to play. I still feel like there’s some more out there for me. Eliminating the big game, that’s something I’ve been working really hard to try to do. And for some reason, I just have one or two bad ones every year. But I feel good about my year. First-time All-Star. Was able to collect some saves. I do feel like there’s room for me to step forward and build.” – Kyle Finnegan

2024 analysis: In more than a few ways, Kyle Finnegan’s 2024 season played out almost identically to his 2023 season. He suffered a bad blown save in the opening week. Then he turned dominant for a sustained stretch. He sweated out the trade deadline, only to be retained. Then he struggled down the stretch, leaving his final stats looking much less impressive than he actually was for most of the year.

The early meltdown came in the season’s third game, when Finnegan surrendered two bottom-of-the-ninth homers in Cincinnati. He followed that up with 16 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. And by July 4, he sported a sparkling 1.98 ERA and league-leading 23 saves in 26 attempts. That didn’t earn him an immediate All-Star selection, but when Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley backed out of the game at the last minute, Finnegan boarded a last minute flight to Dallas to represent his team in the Midsummer Classic alongside CJ Abrams.

Finnegan had a couple hiccups in July, but his name was still front and center as the trade deadline approached. General manager Mike Rizzo, who already dealt Hunter Harvey to the Royals a couple weeks earlier, listened to offers for Finnegan but ultimately didn’t get one that met his lofty asking price and decided to keep his All-Star closer, believing he would be a key part of a 2025 club with visions of contending.

The night before the trade deadline, though, saw Finnegan suffer his worst meltdown of the season, one in which he gave up five runs on five hits (two of them homers) in a loss to the Diamondbacks. He never really was the same after that. Though he officially was charged with only one more blown save the rest of the way, he posted an unsightly 6.43 ERA in his final 21 games, yet again leaving his season totals with something to be desired.

2025 outlook: Barring a surprise offseason trade – and why would you do that after electing not to trade him in July? – Finnegan will return next spring for what will be his contract year. That creates an added element to his sixth big league season. In a perfect world, he’s an All-Star closer again, sustains success all year long and records saves not only through September but into October as well, after which he becomes a free agent and the Nationals have to decide whether to re-sign him or not.

In a not-so-perfect world, Finnegan suffers some more of those meltdowns, and a Nats club that finds itself out of contention again come July now has little choice but to trade him before the deadline, probably getting a lot less in return than would’ve been possible the previous year.

Assuming he does stay the entire 2025 season, Finnegan is going to have to find a way to avoid the late struggles that have plagued him for most of his career. He’s been great all summer, with a 2.81 ERA in June, 2.93 in July and 2.04 in August. Then comes September, when his ERA skyrockets to 5.85 and his home run rate skyrockets to 1.7 per nine innings.

How does Finnegan sustain success throughout the season? A reliable third pitch might be the key. His fastball, while possessing elite velocity, doesn’t induce swings and misses like some other closers. And his splitter, while a nice change of pace that often fools hitters, has at times become too predictable. Finnegan barely throws his third pitch, the slider, and he had good reason to limit its usage in 2023 because opponents crushed it to the tune of a .417 average and .833 slugging percentage. But he made some tweaks to it this season and finally started using it more in the second half with success. Opponents batted only .133 off it without recording any extra base hits. If he can trust that pitch enough to throw it a bit more and keep hitters guessing a bit more, it could pay real dividends.