If Corbin Burnes rolls next Tuesday, the O's decision to remove him last night will look good

When manager Brandon Hyde used the word "collaborative" to describe the decision to shorten Corbin Burnes' start last night, it was clear the O's, the pitching coaches, Hyde and Burnes had all decided that was how last night would go for him.

He was dealing in throwing 69 pitches over five innings, but that was as far as he would pitch on this night.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, the bullpen could not take it from there and three pitchers walked four and allowed six runs to immediately see the Yankees blow the game open.

The Yankees got a 10-1 win and clinched the AL East, while the O's head to Minnesota still needing a win to clinch the top Wild Card spot.  

Baltimore was not conceding the game with this move, but the way the last of the sixth played out, it looked like it. 

It was a disappointing end to the three-game series and denied the Orioles their first three-game sweep in the Bronx since June 6-8, 1986. The Orioles are playoff-bound - first time in back-to-back years since 1996 and 1997 - but still have not clinched that No. 4 seed to host the Wild Card round. They need a win at Target Field or a Detroit loss. 

As for Burnes, where he produces an 18.3 whiff percentage on his cutter, yesterday it was 41 percent (nine swings and misses on 22 swings). He usually averages a strong 45.9 percent whiff rate on his slider, and it was even better last night at 4-for-7, for 57 percent. He averages a 37.6 percent whiff rate on his curve and last night was at 50 percent, 2-of-4. On his changeup, it's usually 37.5 percent and last night was 1-for-2.

If he rolls next week in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and gives the O's a 1-0 lead in a best-of-three series, the short outing last night will be worth it.

"Very, very tough, but that was something that was collaborative," manager Brandon Hyde said of removing Burnes early. "He’s gonna be on regular rest going into that first game of the Wild Card and he hasn’t been on regular rest for a while. And just with the amount of innings he’s pitched and the amount of starts he’s made, we just shortened him up a little bit tonight.”

Burnes is rolling as the playoffs are coming.

Over his past three starts he has an ERA of 0.47, allowing one run over 19 innings with five walks to 24 strikeouts. Over his last six starts, his ERA is 1.29 and he's walked eight with 35 strikeouts over 35 innings. 

For the year his final regular season numbers over 32 starts, show a 15-9 record and 2.92 ERA. He finished with a 1.10 WHIP, 22 quality starts, a .226 average against and OPS of .622.

Burnes last night became the third Baltimore pitcher to top 190 innings in the last 10 years, finishing at 194 1/3 innings. In 2015, Wei-Yin Chen threw 191 1/3 and in 2023 Kyle Gibson pitched 192 innings. The last hurler to top 200 was Chris Tillman at 207 1/3 innings in 2014.

The Orioles, should they see the Yankees in the postseason, should have confidence playing that team. They went 8-5 in the season series. And they went 4-2 at Yankee Stadium after going 4-3 there last year.

For the first time since 1970-1972 when they did it three years in a row, the O's have back-to-back winning records in the Bronx.

At 88-71, the O's currently hold the No. 4 AL seed with Detroit and Kansas City both at 85-74. Kansas City plays at Atlanta this weekend and even with a sweep cannot catch the O's as Baltimore holds the tiebreaker over the Royals. But Detroit could catch the O's and holds the tiebreaker over Baltimore. And while the O's are at Minnesota, Detroit will play the Chicago White Sox.

The O's need to get one more win to make sure their home fans get to pack Oriole Park starting in the playoffs on Tuesday.

If Detroit and Kansas City tie for a playoff spot, K.C. went 7-6 versus the Tigers and would earn the higher seed based on that record. Minnesota does hold tiebreakers over both the Tigers and Royals, but Minnesota cannot catch the Orioles.