In adding Eflin, O's got pitcher bucking recent trends for flamethrowers and Ks

Right-hander Zach Eflin started for the Orioles in Game 1 yesterday. He threw well and got the win against Toronto in his O's debut. He also did something unusual for him. He fanned seven batters to tie a season-high and had six strikeouts after just four innings.

Thirteen times this year in his 20 starts, Eflin fanned five or fewer. He's mostly a control artist and a pitch-to-contact guy.

He is much more of that style pitcher then one with a premium fastball and a big strikeout rate.

Eflin can be a strikeout pitcher. And last year when his ERA was 3.50 and he finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award, he averaged 9.4 strikeouts per every nine innings. But the year before, in 2022, he averaged 7.7 K/9 and this year his average is 7.1 K/9.

There was a day in this game when 7.1 strikeouts per 9 was a lot. For instance, Jim Palmer for his career averaged 5.0 strikeouts per nine and yet won three Cy Young Awards. Today 7.1 per nine is below average.

The recent trend in MLB however, has been mostly for fewer strikeouts, although the drop has been gradual.

2021 – MLB avg. 8.9 K/9

2022 – MLB avg. 8.5 K/9

2023 – MLB avg. 8.7 K/9

2024 – MLB avg. 8.5 K/9

Is the game trending slowly toward more pitch-to-contact hurlers, I asked O’s manager Brandon Hyde before Monday’s doubleheader?

“You know I think you want to have a little bit of a mixed bag on your pitching staff,” he said. “And you love to have swing and miss guys, especially in your bullpen. You love to have starters that are able to go deep in the game.

“I remember Zach in Philly early and it was a little bit more power but that unique kind of, he’s 6-foot-6 and the way he is able to throw the sinker, lot of groundballs.

“Yeah I think there is probably going to always be room for both. I don’t know if the game is trending a certain way. But everybody needs starting pitching that can go deep in the games so they don’t annihilate their bullpens and so it will always be where the Kyle Gibsons and Zach Eflins, those type of guys, are super valuable on your club.”

Corbin Burnes brought the trend for fewer strikeouts to my attention, during a May interview, not long after he went six innings allowing one run but with just two strikeouts on May 13 versus Toronto.

The Blue Jays strikeout percentage – the percentage of strikeouts among all plate appearances – is 19.7. That is the fourth lowest in the majors this year where MLB average is 22.5. They are tougher to fan than most clubs.

Burnes actually felt the Blue Jays hitters helped him that day at times by cutting down on their swing to put balls in play. Burnes own K/9 has plummeted in recent years, from 12.6 in 2021 when he was a Cy Young winner to 10.8 in 2022, 9.3 in 2023 and 8.3 this year.

We do see a trend here and he is still pitching at a very high level even with fewer strikeouts and sometimes is getting quicker outs with hitters approaching him in a different way than they once did.

And Burnes added this: “I know that when I need a punchout, I can still get it in a big situation. I think that is what kind of matters the most,” he said.

A few team notes: After last night’s doubleheader, the Orioles have scored at least one run in each of their last 55 games against Toronto. It’s the second-longest active scoring streak versus one team for the Orioles and the second-longest active streak without a shutout against one team for the Blue Jays.

The only longer active scoring streak for the Orioles is 57 straight games against the Los Angeles Angels.

The O’s Ryan Mountcastle plated his 50th run of the season on Sunday, the fifth Oriole to reach the 50-RBI mark in 2024. No other MLB club this season has five such players as of Monday.

The Orioles have had five players reach 50 RBIs prior to August in three previous seasons

1996: 6
2017: 5
2016: 5

After last night's doubleheader split, the Orioles are 63-44 and their first-place lead atop the AL East is down to 1/2 game over the Yankees and six games over the Red Sox.

Trade deadline speculation: On the final day of the trade deadline today, will the Orioles make another trade or more than one? Will they be "aiming high" as Jon Heyman speculated yesterday in saying the Orioles have interest in two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

In the New York Post last night, Heyman wrote that the Yankees, in his opinion, needed to make a play for a major rotation piece. 

He wrote of the Orioles that, "The rival Orioles already landed nice righty starter Zach Eflin and they’re loaded to keep adding. And if there were legitimate betting houses taking wagers on Snell and Skubal, they’d probably be the favorite for either one."