Is this one way the O's offense could take a step forward next season?

We’re kind of just thinking out loud here today. But as the Orioles look to win more games and get back on top of the American League East next season, I believe changing or making some slight alterations to how the Orioles do business could be helpful moving forward.

Over the next few weeks, I will take a look in this space at some ways that could happen. 

Less aggressiveness on two-strike counts

Going back several years when I started hearing about and writing about the O’s working hard to make better swing decisions on the farm, I reported that this means essentially that a hitter does not shorten his swing with two strikes.

The thinking was, always put your best swing on the ball and try to drive it. In all counts. Shortening up the swing to just make contact works against that.

But the problem is the amount of chasing of pitches when the counts become 0-2 or 1-2 for instance. Taking a big swing there leads to chasing and swing and miss and that benefits no one. A more contact-minded approach when down in the count could lead to more bloops or singles with runners in scoring position. Or putting a ball in play to possibly put pressure on the defense.

I have written since the season ended that I believe in the O’s general offensive approach but that they should be open to tweaks and adjustments. This is one. Go out to try and do damage until a count of two strikes. And then work to put a ball in play and make something happen.

What do the stats say?

I provided my opinion here, before looking up what the statistics say on this topic.

The Orioles might cite them and say we are doing just fine with two strikes and the stats bear that out actually.

No team hits that well with two strikes of course, in fact the best two-strike batting average this year in MLB was San Diego at .201 with Houston next at .192.

At .175, the O’s two-strike batting average ranks tied for fourth among all AL teams and tied for 10^th in MLB. Their .251 OBP ranks fourth in the AL and 10^th in MLB. Their .299 slugging ranks first in the AL and second in MLB to Arizona at .315. And Baltimore’s two-strike team OPS of .550 is tied for first in the AL with Houston, just ahead of the Yankees and tied for third in MLB.

The Yankees led the majors this season with 85 two-strike homers and the Orioles were second at 82.

These numbers are all pretty strong for the Orioles and might actually be telling us their approach is not wrong to keep taking a big swing. I still think some changes could be made here. Maybe not in a team-wide, one-size-fits-all philosophy, but let’s look at specific hitters this could help or specific situations when an approach change is necessary or the better percentage play.

Some might say yes, we see those numbers, but the Orioles too often strike out when they get to two strikes, allowing them not to add to those stats.

That is not so either. The Orioles had the 18^th-most team strikeouts this year in MLB when the count hit two strikes. So they were right in the middle of the pack here and by no means among the worst.

As for individual players, Gunnar Henderson's two-strike OPS of .649 ranked 10th in the AL among qualified hitters and his 13 homers was tied for fifth in the AL.

Anthony Santander's 20 two-strike homers ranked third in the AL and his OPS of .624 was 13th. Adley Rutschman was 21st at .575, Ryan Mountcastle 39th at .502 and Colton Cowser 48th at .473.

Some other two-strike OPS figures show Ramón Urías at .657, Jordan Westburg .654, Ryan O'Hearn .632, Cedric Mullins .572, James McCann .421 and Jackson Holliday at .317.

Should the O's make some two-strike approach changes or do the stats say they are mostly doing the right things?