Jim Callis' take on O's 2021 draft picks and a look ahead to 2022

They are still a long way from the major leaguers, but seeing a host of players from the 2021 Orioles draft class end the year playing so well at low Single-A Delmarva was a real plus for the organization.

After drafting players they are high on in the first two drafts under Mike Elias - like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Stowers, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad - the class of '21 was raking late in the year with the Shorebirds after starting their pro careers this summer after the draft in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League.

Delmarva was 20-10 over the last 30 games after the mid-August arrival of a host of those draft picks. The team scored 224 runs (7.5 per game) in those 30 games.

I recently recorded a Zoom interview with Jim Callis of MLBPipeline.com to discuss the club's most recent draft. He likes what the Orioles did and especially the top two draft picks.

Outfielder Colton Cowser, taken No. 5 overall out of Sam Houston State, batted .375/.490/.492/.982 in 32 games between the FCL and Delmarva. Infielder Connor Norby, taken No. 41 overall out of East Carolina, batted .264/.380/.405/.785 in 33 games between the same two clubs.

"Cowser, we have talked about him before: Was he the consensus fifth-best player in the draft? He wasn't," said Callis. "He was a guy they took to be able to spend money later in the draft. But similar to Heston Kjerstad, he was a legitimate pick. We had him ranked 10th on our list and I thought he was a little underrated compared to other college bats last year. It was not a deep college bat class whatsoever.

"I thought Henry Davis was the No. 1 college bat and he went No. 1 overall. And then, to me, I thought Cowser was the No. 2 college bat. He's a different player than Kjerstad. Kjerstad was a power over hit (tool) guy; Cowser is a hit over power guy. But he showed more power last year and has good instincts in center. I think there were some questions whether he can stay in center, but he was quicker last year and I think he erased those questions."

Callis added more praise for Cowser.

"I think he's a sneaky good across-the-board player,.I really like Colton Cowser," he said. "Then Norby, you know it's interesting. One of the trends we saw, and not just with the Orioles last year, but there were guys in the draft who could really hit and Connor Norby is one of them and maybe the rest of the tools were average, which I think was the case with Norby. There were guys (where) that best tool was far and away their bat and a lot of those guys went in the top 50 picks. I think he can really hit, and when I say he has average tools across the board otherwise, that's fine. But he was drafted 41st overall because he can hit. He might have 15-homer power and steal a few bases; he's not a blazer, but has good instincts. He's going to play second over short."

In the draft last July, of the 21 players the Orioles selected, there were 12 position players and nine pitchers taken, but just one hurler was taken in the first 10 rounds. That was right-hander Carlos Tavera, from Texas-Arlington, selected in round five by Baltimore. He then went 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings with Delmarva.

I asked Callis about the Orioles taking most of their pitchers from the 11th round on.

"To me, talent is talent and you have to take the best player," he said. "Everyone gets excited about their draft. But in a typical draft for the industry as a whole, there are maybe six or eight true stars, and then maybe a couple dozen players who have a nice five-year run as solid players and everyone else has up-and-down careers.

"Every year, I do a redraft of the draft from 10 years previously and by the end of the first round, I'm putting in guys like Stephen Vogt and Tommy Hunter. These are not superstars, but Vogt was one of the 30 best players the year he was drafted. There just aren't a ton of great players in the draft."

The Orioles have the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, barring a change by Major League Baseball in how the draft order is determined. Not only does Callis expect that the Orioles will indeed wind up with that pick at No. 1, but he expects that to be a position player. The last pitcher the Orioles took with their top pick was right-hander Grayson Rodriguez in 2018.

"I don't think they are going to change the (draft pick) system retroactively," said Callis. "There is talk, we've heard rumors, they might say a team can't pick in the top five three years in a row or they might have a lottery for the top three picks. But generally, baseball doesn't make those changes retroactively, so I'm going to say the Orioles will have the No. 1 pick next July."

And about that No. 1 pick?

"The way this draft is lining up, it's hitter-hitter heavy at the top of the draft. ... I think it's pretty much a lock the Orioles are taking a hitter with the No. 1 pick given what we know about this class right now," Callis said.

"The hitters, both on the high school and college side, are really deep. There isn't a college pitcher that belongs at the top of the draft right now. Here we are, at least seven months out, but I don't think there is a clear-cut No. 1. So there could be all kinds of interesting stories from the Orioles perspective going forward.

"But there are some really good high school hitters. Andruw Jones' son, Druw, is a center fielder from Georgia. Man, he is loaded with tools. He reminds me of his dad. Termarr Johnson, another high school kid from Georgia, he's the best high school hitter that I think has come around in a long time. I've seen guys put an 80 on his bat; I might go 70, but it's really good. You have Elijah Green, who is the son of Eric Green, who I think played for the Ravens at one point, an NFL tight end. Elijah Green probably has the best all-around tools in the draft. He's real exciting.

"On the college side, you have guys like LSU third baseman Jacob Berry, Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, Texas Tech infielder Jace Jung. So it's a really good crop of hitters. I will make a bold prediction, Steve, seven months early, that the Orioles will take a position player at 1/1."

Check out the Zoom interview here with Callis discussing the O's '21 draft and his quick look ahead at next year's No. 1 pick.