Many points to consider when trying to project 25-man roster

SARASOTA, Fla. - Before I can get a stronger grip on the 25-man roster that will be unveiled on opening day in the Bronx, I still need to know how many pitchers are heading north. Is it a 12- or 13-man pitching staff? Does manager Brandon Hyde envision carrying four starters until a fifth is needed on April 10?

The mocks are murky without this information.

The position battles continue in the outfield, at third base and behind the plate. I'm giving Rule 5 pick Richie Martin the starting job at shortstop because he's done everything to earn it.

No one knows the severity of Chris Davis' left hip flexor injury. He's labeled as day-to-day and hasn't talked about it with the media. We know only what Hyde passes along, that soreness remains and it cropped up after Davis reached for a throw up the first base line.

Nate Karns' uncertain starting status also is a roster complication. He could be shifted to the bullpen or injured list if unable to accumulate the necessary spring innings. So how exactly are we supposed to state with any conviction where he's going to be on March 28?

Mark Trumbo is the designated hitter until he isn't, the possibility of an insufficient number of at-bats also making him an IL candidate. And yes, it's now "IL," so get used to it.

Catcher Austin Wynns expressed confidence yesterday that he can avoid the injured list, though obliques tend to linger beyond day-to-day status. Jesús Sucre has a March 22 opt-out clause in his minor league deal. Anyone expressing supreme confidence in knowing which catchers are kept after spring training is in pure guess mode.

Chance Sisco has gone from "he'd benefit starting at Triple-A" to "he's probably on the team now." Having a left-handed bat at the position wouldn't hurt, and he's the most intriguing offensive talent at the position. The confidence is back and no one is fretting over his defense.

Three spots in the rotation are set with Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner. The only question is who's taking the mound for the opener.

Karns was slotted as the fourth starter before the Orioles had to back off him. His removal from the rotation could bump David Hess to No. 4. But Mike Wright is stating his case with 10 scoreless innings.

Either way, Wright makes the team. We're down to what role.

An eighth reliever can be carried on a 12-man pitching staff until the fifth starter is needed, the delay based on the off-days on March 29 and April 5. The Orioles can take Pedro Araujo north for the first 17 days and option him after his Rule 5 status is gone.

Hyde could shift a rotation candidate like Wright to the bullpen while preferring that others - let's use Hess and Jimmy Yacabonis as examples - start every five days at Triple-A Norfolk. Also necessary information before feeling confident about a mock roster.

Renato Núñez is out of options, which seems to make him the favorite at third base despite Rio Ruiz being 7-for-21 with two doubles and a home run and steadier defensively.

Rule 5 pick Drew Jackson is expected to stay with the team in a super-utility capacity. The real unknown is whether the Orioles also carry veteran Alcides Escobar, who can handle infield and outfield responsibilities and provide a veteran presence. Which brings us back to the length of Hyde's bench.

Joey Rickard seems a lock to stay, whether on regular duty or backing up all three outfield spots. I'm expecting Yusniel Diaz to head back to the minors despite his impressive spring. It's about development. And he didn't exactly light up the Eastern League after the Manny Machado trade.

I was convinced that Austin Hays would begin the season in the minors after a lost 2018, but he's been a standout in Grapefruit League play and could apply pressure to Cedric Mullins in center field. Everyone has been assuming that Mullins is the starter on opening day and that probably will happen, but he isn't guaranteed a spot, as Hyde indicated yesterday.

I'm not dismissing Eric Young Jr.'s chances of making the club. Going back to the whole development thing, he's here in part to keep certain prospects from being rushed while also supplying the speed and outfield versatility that the Orioles are seeking. Don't automatically write him off.

I dismissed Anthony Santander before we arrived in Sarasota, the forgotten outfielder after his Rule 5 status expired. But he's been exceptional with his power to all fields. He had a game-tying RBI single yesterday in the eighth inning and is 9-for-20 with four doubles and two home runs.

A decision must be made whether to reward Santander with a return to the majors or eye the bigger picture and give him more experience at Double-A or Triple-A while, say, Young breaks camp with the team.

However it all unfolds, the Orioles have reason to be encouraged by the young talent they can use to stock the rosters at the two highest affiliates. The "losers" in these competitions will be in position to beat down the door and force their way into Camden Yards.

This is how it's supposed to work. Like the days of Don Baylor and Bobby Grich returning to Rochester because there simply was no room for them.