Nationals win Draft Lottery, will hold No. 1 pick for third time

The Nationals nearly won Major League Baseball’s first Draft Lottery in 2022, finishing runner-up to the Pirates. They technically did win the 2023 lottery but were ineligible to hold the No. 1 pick, which wound up going instead to the Guardians.

There were no such restrictions this time around, just low odds. Which proved not to be a problem when the Nats were revealed the surprise winners of the 2024 lottery.

The grand prize: The No. 1 pick in next summer’s draft, the third time in club history they’ve held the first overall selection. The previous two players selected: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010, a couple of franchise icons.

Strasburg and Harper were drafted during some of the lowest points in the club’s two decades in D.C., immediately following 100-loss seasons. They were key figures in securing the team’s first winning record (and division title) in 2012. This No. 1 pick will join the organization three years into a roster rebuild that already has seen top prospects (Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore) reach the majors, with an eye on returning to contention as soon as 2025.

“We’ve got a good system in place right now. Getting the first pick is just going to add to that, and add value to our organization,” general manager Mike Rizzo told MLB Network shortly after learning the news at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We’re extremely excited. We’re lucky. And we don’t want to ever be in this position ever again.”

The Nationals were in this position because they finished with a losing record for the fifth straight year, duplicating their 71-91 record from 2023. Even so, they entered tonight’s lottery with only a 10.2 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick, behind the Rockies (22.5 percent), Marlins (22.5 percent) and Angels (18 percent).

But as Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser (the fifth overall pick in 2021) unveiled each of the 18 lottery participants in reverse order tonight, the Nationals’ logo remained unrevealed down to the end. The final two participants were the Nats and Angels, who went 63-99 this season and haven’t held the No. 1 pick since 1995 (Darin Erstad). And when Cowser revealed the haloed “A” logo as the No. 2 pick, the Nationals realized they had won.

Strasburg and Harper were no-brainer choices for Rizzo, all-time prospects who most outside observers expected all along to go No. 1 overall. There were similar expectations in 2005, when the Diamondbacks (who employed Rizzo as scouting director) took Justin Upton with the top pick.

And sure enough, there’s a well-known name looming as the potential No. 1 choice this time around, another younger brother of a previous No. 1 pick: Ethan Holliday. The 17-year-old Oklahoma infielder, son of former big league star Matt and brother of 2022 No. 1 pick Jackson, will draw most of the attention between now and draft day on July 13.

The Nationals will consider other options, of course, with a list that includes Texas A&M outfielder Jace Laviolette, California high school right-hander Seth Hernandez, UC-Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner and Florida State left-hander Jamie Arnold.

“What I’ve learned from those (previous No. 1) picks is: Don’t get too ultra-focused on one player in one draft season,” Rizzo said. “Have a wide scope, and really scour the country. Especially with the draft pools being so large, and allocating money differently, you can really do some interesting things and impact your draft throughout the entirety.”