Nats' path back to contention must go through tough NL East

The Nationals want to be better in 2025. Better enough to contend in the National League East.

Which means, first and foremost, they’re going to have to play better against the NL East.

It probably won’t surprise you to learn the Nats haven’t finished with a winning record against division opponents since 2019, which just so happens to be the last time they finished with a winning record overall (not to mention the Commissioner’s Trophy). The results against the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Phillies in recent years hasn’t been pretty.

But there has been actual improvement. The low point came in 2022, when the Nationals lost 107 games overall and produced a dismal 17-59 record within the division, a .224 winning percentage. Major League Baseball’s schedule changes beginning in 2023 meant a lot fewer intradivision games, but the Nats still struggled that season, going 19-33 for a .365 winning percentage.

We finally saw real progress this year, resulting in a respectable 25-27 record against the NL East, good for a .481 winning percentage. And most notably, the Nationals actually had a winning record against two division foes, going a solid 8-5 against Atlanta and a dominant 11-2 against Miami one year after stumbling to the exact opposite record in that matchup.

Yes, that overwhelming success against a last place team skewed the overall division record, but you’ve got to start somewhere. If nothing else, the Nats proved they were considerably better than the Marlins.

The winning record against the Braves was more impressive, because that was a playoff team. An offensively challenged playoff team, yes, but a playoff team nonetheless. Psychologically, it meant something to the young Nationals to go 8-5 in those games.

The next step, though, is critical if this organization really wants to establish itself as a contender again. The Nats can’t be overwhelmed by the Mets and Phillies the way they were this season while producing a winning record overall.

The Nationals went a combined 6-20 against those two playoff-bound foes, including a dismal 2-11 against New York. That won’t cut it anymore.

If they merely improved to a .500 record in those games, the Nats would have won 78 overall this season. That wouldn’t have gotten them into the playoffs, but it would’ve gotten them much closer to the conversation.

The challenge, of course, is making that kind of improvement against some of the most talented, highest spending teams in baseball. And it’s not like any of them are easing off the gas pedal this winter.

All three of the NL East’s postseason participants ended the year more motivated than ever not only to get back there again in 2025, but to play deeper into October in search of a World Series berth.

The Mets may have surprised everyone with their 89-win regular season and then run to the NL Championship Series, but owner Steve Cohen and his organization weren’t satisfied with that outcome. Is it any wonder Cohen is making an all-out attempt to lure Juan Soto away from the Bronx and to Queens, a potential move that could reshape the balance of power in New York.

The Phillies won 95 games and the division crown, but that was no consolation to any of their notoriously fickle fans, who expected more. After an 11-year playoff drought, Philadelphia returned in October 2022 and reached the World Series, then lost the NLCS in 2023 and then lost the NLDS in 2024. The pressure is on this organization to win it all while Bryce Harper is still in peak form.

The Braves made their seventh consecutive postseason appearance this fall, but their stranglehold on the division’s top position finally ended. And their 89-win season came to an abrupt end in the Wild Card Series, the injuries they sustained throughout the summer too much to overcome. They may not spend like the Mets and Phillies this winter, but the reinforcements they’ll get simply from the return of injured stars like Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Spencer Strider might be enough to get them back on top of the NL East.

So this is the challenge awaiting the Nationals. After five straight losing seasons, they believe they’re ready to take a major step forward in 2025.

But to do that, they’ll have to prove they can hold their own within one of the sport’s toughest divisions, competing with three expected contenders in a way they haven’t been able to for some time.