Nats rotation was durable, now needs to perform

If, way back on Opening Day, they knew they would make it through the entire season using only eight starting pitchers, the Nationals would’ve been ecstatic.

Only twice before in club history had so few starters been needed, and each time (2012, 2014) the team won a division title. Surely, this was a sign the 2023 rotation was destined for greatness.

That’s not exactly how it played out. The Nats rotation still ended the year with a 5.02 ERA and 1.501 WHIP, ranking 25th in the majors in each category. The group also finished near the bottom of the sport in walks (27th), strikeouts (25th) and homers (29th).

But while better overall performance certainly would’ve been nice, the mere fact the Nationals rotation proved so durable was significant.

“It was a very healthy year for our pitching staff, which was great,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “It’s a testament to the training staff and the medical staff and to the pitching coaches, and to the way (manager Davey Martinez) handled them.”

Only the playoff-bound Blue Jays used less starters this year. And after they used 15 different starters in 2022, tied for the most in club history, the Nats had to be pleased with the continuity they saw in 2023.

There were a couple of minor injuries along the way – MacKenzie Gore’s blister, Chad Kuhl’s sprained toe – but otherwise the only changes the Nationals made to their rotation between Opening Day and Game 162 were made for performance or strategic reasons.

Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray and Trevor Williams each made 30 or more starts. Gore made 27 before being shut down the second half of September with the aforementioned blister. The most unexpected development of the season, though, was the emergence of Jake Irvin not only as a fill-in starter when Kuhl went on the IL but as a long-term solution.

Not rated among the organization’s top pitching prospects, Irvin nonetheless earned the right to make his major league debut in early May, and then he earned the right to keep his job the rest of the way. The 26-year-old wound up starting 24 games and all but guaranteeing him a spot in the Opening Day 2024 rotation.

“It’s really a testament to the staff we have here,” he said. “Our trainers, our training staff, everybody’s done a really good job helping me get my body in a position where I could throw every day. It’s something I did for the first time in my career, throwing on four days’ rest. It was a challenge at first, but they really helped me get acclimated to that.”

Irvin’s development was a pleasant surprise, but the Nationals understand he’s at best a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the long term. The keys to a top-tier rotation, and the postseason berth it typically ensures, are the continued development of Gore, Gray and top prospect Cade Cavalli.

Both Gore and Gray certainly provided reason for optimism this season, though both also proved they’re not fully developed yet.

After missing the second half of the 2022 season following his acquisition from the Padres in the Juan Soto blockbuster, Gore showed he could keep his arm healthy through the rigors of a full big league season. And his best starts (6 1/3 one-hit innings against the Red Sox, 11 strikeouts in seven innings against the Royals, one run and 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Mets) were some of the best of any Nats pitcher this year.

Gore’s worst starts, though, were incredibly frustrating. The 24-year-old often struggled to consistently throw fastballs for strikes, driving up his pitch count. He topped the 100-pitch mark nine times, but totaled five or fewer innings in four of those starts.

“When he’s good, he’s good,” Martinez said. “His stuff is always electric. We’ve got to get him to understand how to use his stuff, how to attack hitters a little better, being around the zone. His misses need to be more around the zone. But overall, I think he’s matured from the beginning of the year to now tremendously.”

Consistency was also an issue for Gray, though it was less of a problem start to start and more of a problem over long stretches.

Across 17 starts through the season’s first three months, he delivered a 3.30 ERA while averaging 5 2/3 innings per game, earning the first All-Star selection of his career. Then over his next 10 starts, the right-hander's ERA shot up to 5.83, his average outing lasting only 4 2/3 innings. A skipped turn in early September, though, helped Gray finish strong with a 2.08 ERA and nearly six innings averaged over his final three starts.

“It’s been a crazy season,” he said. “Obviously being named an All-Star is something I never dreamed of, and to be able to go out there and succeed and be in that environment was surreal. And then the struggle after the break was also something that was tough. I can’t really put it into words. It made you kind of (think): ‘Man, what am I doing here? Where are things going?’ To be able to rebound from that, with the confidence of my teammates and the confidence of my staff, it means a lot.”

The biggest disappointment of the season in the Nationals rotation was the performance of the two veterans who made it through from start to finish. Corbin (5.20 ERA, 1.483 WHIP) was better than either of the previous two seasons, but the bar was set awfully low because of that. Williams (5.55 ERA, 1.600 WHIP) progressively got worse as the season wore on, raising doubts about his ability to be a full-time starter after serving as a swingman for the Mets the previous two years.

Both Corbin ($35 million) and Williams ($7 million) are under contract for one more year. Corbin seems a lock to make the Opening Day rotation one last time. Williams, though, could cede his spot to a younger, in-house option like Joan Adon or Jackson Rutledge, or potentially an outside acquisition should the Nats go that route this winter.

Whoever holds that spot in April and May, though, could very well lose it in June to Cavalli, who will be 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery at that point. The Nationals continue to put a lot of their hope and faith in the hard-throwing right-hander to be a frontline starter for them for years to come.

“We’re hopeful and optimistic that he’s one of the, what, 85 percent of Tommy John recipients that gets back to where he was,” Rizzo said. “If that’s the case, he’s going to be a factor for us, and an impact starting pitcher for us in the near future.”