O's game blog: The series opener against Boston

For the first time since April 9, the Orioles will face an American League East team tonight. They open a three-game home series versus the Boston Red Sox.

The O’s (14-7) opened the 2023 season at Fenway Park, winning 10-9 before losses by 9-8 and 9-5 scores. They allowed Boston at least nine runs in three consecutive games.

Contrast that with the pitching lately, where the Orioles have allowed just seven runs during a six-game win streak. O’s pitchers have allowed just three runs over their past 54 innings and three runs the last five games, allowing, in order, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 1 against Washington and Detroit.

But Boston (12-11) just took two of three at Milwaukee, and the Red Sox, since beginning this season at 5-8, are 7-3 and have won three of their past four. They are 2-5 versus AL East clubs, going 2-1 against Baltimore but 0-4 against Tampa Bay.

The current AL East standings

Tampa Bay at 19-3
Orioles at 14-7
New York and Toronto at 13-9
Boston at 12-11

So there are five AL East clubs playing .522 ball or better. No other division has more than three.

Boston’s offense will test the O’s pitching. Their average of 5.74 runs per game ranks third in the AL and fourth in the majors. The O’s are tied for sixth in the majors. Boston’s offense ranks third in the AL in team OPS at .763.

MLB’s highest-scoring teams, runs per game:

6.77 – Tampa Bay
6.62 – Texas
5.76 – Chicago Cubs
5.74 – Boston
5.26 – Los Angeles Dodgers
5.14 – Orioles and Houston

The O’s team ERA is 1.15 during their win streak and Baltimore starting pitchers have allowed just one run the last 35 innings. That is an ERA of 0.26. The O’s ‘pen has allowed just five earned runs in 31 1/3 innings the past nine games for a 1.44 ERA.

Right-hander Dean Kremer (1-0, 6.16 ERA) will make his fifth start in the series opener. He has allowed 1.368 WHIP on the year while posting a 2.8 walk rate and 6.6 K rate. Opponents are batting .267 with an .857 OPS against him in 2023.

But he is coming off his best game, when he pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings on 95 pitches Tuesday at Washington. He used his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95.7 mph, on 57 percent of those pitches. And he really attacked the zone, throwing first-pitch strikes to 21 of 25 batters at Nats Park, where he fanned six and gave up no walks.

His mound opponent today is lefty Chris Sale (1-1, 8.00 ERA) who has made four starts. Sale went 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in two games covering 5 2/3 innings last year. Sale made just 11 starts, throwing 48 1/3 innings over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He had Tommy John surgery and did not pitch at all in 2020.

Since signing a five-year deal worth $145 million heading into the 2020 season, Sale has been on the injured list for 340 out of 384 games through 2022. He has been on the IL eight times since 2018 while dealing with various issues that included a rib stress fracture and fractured finger in 2022.

From 2012 through 2018, Sale was a workhorse, winning 99 games with a 2.91 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per nine in 207 starts. He never won a Cy Young Award, but finished in the top six of the voting every year in that span.

Sale faced the Orioles in the second game of the year, and the O’s blew the game but took a 7-1 lead against him in the third inning. He gave up a solo homer to Austin Hays, a two-run shot to Ryan Mountcastle and a three-run blast to Cedric Mullins, allowing seven runs in three innings on 74 pitches.

But he has good career numbers versus Baltimore. He is 10-3 with a 3.21 ERA in 24 games and 18 career starts. O’s batters have hit a combined .222/.287/.369/.656 against him.

Sale has 30 strikeouts over 18 innings this year for a 15.0 K rate. He has 11.11 strikeouts per nine innings in his career (2,094 SO/1,696.0 IP), the highest rate in the Live Ball Era (min. 1,000 IP).

The Red Sox are 5-2-0 in series. Last season, they went 1-5-1 in their first seven series and did not earn their fifth series win until May 26. The Sox have won each of their last three series, each against a team that entered Game 1 with at least a share of first place (3-1 vs. the Angels, 2-1 vs. Minnesota and 2-1 at Milwaukee).

The Red Sox have come from behind in nine of their 12 wins, most in the majors. They trailed by multiple runs in five of those nine wins, including by four runs on April 15 against the Angels, and by six runs on April 1 against the Orioles.