Manager: Mike Redmond (3rd season)
Record: 12-13
Last 10 games: 8-2
Who to watch: 2B Dee Gordon (.440/.463/.510 with 11 RBIs, 11 SB), RF Giancarlo Stanton (.272, 6 HR, 24 RBIs), SS Adeiny Hechavarria (.312/.337/.462 with 16 RBIs), RHP David Phelps (1-0, 3.38 ERA, no HR allowed in 18 2/3 IP).
Season series vs. Nationals: 3-0
Pitching probables:
May 4: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann, 7:05 p.m., MASN
May 5: RHP Mat Latos vs. RHP Stephen Strasburg, 7:05 p.m., MASN
May 6: RHP Tom Koehler vs. RHP Max Scherzer, 1:05 p.m., MASN
Inside the Marlins:
The Nationals' trip to Marlins Park two weekends ago was an unmitigated disaster. Miami swept the three-game series, outscoring the Nats 17-4 in the process, and the tailspin didn't end until Washington had dropped six straight games. The Marlins used their good pitching, hot hitting and the ability to capitalize on Nationals miscues to go from a team that was 5-11 amid rumors of a managerial change to a club flirting with .500 and boasting some new-found swagger. The three-game sweep was part of a stretch where the Marlins went 7-1. Momentum is important for Miami, lest the Fish morph back into the club that went 11-27 against the Nats from 2013-14 and 4-15 at Nationals Park over the past two seasons..
Right fielder Giancarlo Stanton hasn't gone off on one of his patented power surges yet this season, but he's still been consistent enough to lead the Fish with six home runs and the majors with 24 RBIs, pretty much what you'd expect from a guy being paid $325 million over the next 13 seasons. And he likes Nationals pitching: Stanton's 23 homers against pitchers sporting curly W caps are his highwater mark against any team. There was a time Stanton was the only legitimate weapon the Marlins boasted, but no more, meaning it's no longer easy to work around him. They've got speed atop the lineup with second baseman Dee Gordon leading the National League with a .440 average and 44 hits (and on a 20-for-31 tear during an eight-game hitting streak); a rising contributor in shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, who has secured the No. 2 spot in the order and contributed 16 RBIs; a savvy veteran in third baseman Martin Prado; center fielder Marcell Ozuna wanting to produce in his walk year; and protection from ex-National Michael Morse at first base. Makes you wonder how Miami would be doing if left fielder Christian Yelich weren't on the disabled list with a balky lower back (though he's begun a minor league rehabilitation assignment and hopes to return soon).
Still, the Marlins are an offensive mishmash, ranking last in the National League in home runs and third in hits. While no one outside Miami laments that the garish whirling thingamabob at Marlins Park that lights up and gyrates when a homer is hit isn't working overtime, it's safe to say the Marlins would be hard-pressed to stay around break-even if they can't turn on the power and make more out of some of those base knocks they're amassing. They're scoring runs at a decent enough clip; they just need to score more - or at least more consistently - while the pitching holds the opposition in check. So far, so good, as the Fish own the seventh-best ERA among NL rotations.
The Nationals didn't see right-hander David Phelps on their swing to South Florida, but he's the definition of a middling starting pitcher, posting a career 13-11 record and 4.13 ERA in 43 starts. This season, his three starts have yielded a 1-0 record and 1.53 ERA, and he's done a good job of keeping opposing hitters in check - right-handers are batting only .194 against him, while lefty swingers have a .235 mark with zero RBIs. Phelps will be making his first appearance against the Nats, but you can wager a round at the Clevelander that they'll go up hacking against the righty. In his first 15 pitches of a start, opponents hit .353 against Phelps. After that, he settles down, at least until his 76th through 90th pitches, when foes light him up at a .444 clip. If he lasts that long, Phelps will have probably have turned the game over to the bullpen. Of course, if the numbers stay true, the Nats could be aiming to do their damage against him early.
The Marlins hope righty Mat Latos, a native of nearby Alexandria, Va., is healthy enough to make his scheduled Tuesday start. A left hamstring injury forced him out of his last outing on April 29 after only five innings, but Latos has managed to pare his ERA down from an unsightly 94.50 after his first start of 2015 to a merely offensive 6.86 after five starts. Latos is no stranger to the Nationals, having compiled a 3-2 record and 2.68 ERA in eight lifetime starts against them, including a 2-0 mark and 2.04 ERA in three starts in D.C. when he was with the Reds. So far this season, opponents are slashing .326/.385/.512 against Latos, but the calendar may be working in his favor. While March/April have yielded a 4-11 record and 4.64 ERA in his career, May is statistically his best month of the season. In 22 May starts over his previous six campaigns, Latos has gone 13-3 with a 3.06 ERA.
By name recognition alone, Wednesday afternoon's getaway day matchup between Miami's Tom Koehler and Washington's Max Scherzer looks like a mismatch tilted in favor of the Nationals. But Koehler is the guy who held the Nats scoreless on six hits over 7 2/3 innings on April 26, easily the best of the right-hander's five starts this season. Koehler doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well, but he's the kind of pitcher you need to make work and expend energy in order to beat him. Perhaps the time of game and type of field will help the Nats - well, assuming Scherzer doesn't get any more run support than the six runs the Nats have given him in three losses and a no-decision. The numbers say Koehler doesn't like the Sun Monster any more than Bryce Harper, posting a 1-1 record and 5.91 ERA in day games, while he's only 16-23 in his career on natural grass.
We're also hitting the time of year where the weather warms up in D.C., and that could play a role in this week's set at Nationals Park. Temperatures are supposed to climb from around 80 to the mid-80s by midweek, the rise bringing a chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon affair. Warmer temps and increased humidity can turn Nats Park into a launching pad, and there's plenty of power in both dugouts to make hay if the meteorological conditions cooperate.
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