Orioles subjects for second half of season

ARLINGTON, Texas – Time to get back to work.

The All-Star break was more restful to some players than others, but it offered a needed reset for a team that’s 9-13 since leaving the Bronx on a high note.

The Orioles worked out last night at Globe Life Field, where Corbin Burnes, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Jordan Westburg played in the All-Star Game. Burnes is rejoining the club after flying back to his Arizona home that night.

Whether the Orioles repeat as American League East champions is probably the top question hanging in the air. They’d need to experience a monumental collapse to finish outside the playoff field, but yes, it’s a mathematical possibility.

We’ll lump those two together. Do they make the playoffs, and if so, are they atop the division?

Does that work for everyone?

The goal is a deeper run than last fall, when the Rangers swept the Orioles in the Division Series. To do so likely requires multiple trades that improve the rotation and bullpen.

Leaving the break with a 58-38 record is an exceptional achievement considering the losses of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells. The rotation should be in shambles, but its 3.63 ERA is fourth in the American League and sixth in the majors.

Dig around, though, and you’ll find that it’s 5.60 since June 17. Cade Povich allowed eight runs in one-plus innings in Oakland, which certainly impacted that number. Albert Suárez is up and down, with a four-start stretch of three runs over 19 1/3 innings, three runs with six hits and five walks in 3 2/3 in New York and five runs and 10 hits in five innings in Houston, six scoreless against the Rangers, two runs in six innings in Oakland and four runs in five innings against the Cubs.

Cole Irvin was moved to the bullpen after allowing 14 earned runs and 18 total in his last three starts covering 12 1/3 innings.

Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer are starting the weekend series against the Rangers. Burnes basically had a side session Tuesday with his 19 pitches.

Starters rumored to be connected to the Orioles in trade talks include the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet and the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal. Crochet might put too large of a dent in the prospect stash. We don’t know exactly who’s off the table for executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias.

Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo seem to be untouchable despite some media and fan noise about including baseball’s top prospect in any deal for a controllable starter. I don’t anticipate the Orioles doing it. And no one would suggest it if he were in the majors now instead of serving as a Triple-A designated hitter until he’s cleared to resume his duties at second base.

Running hot and cold on a prospect is a tradition unlike any other.

The Orioles aren’t eager to include Double-A catcher Samuel Basallo, their No. 2 prospect. He’s a special talent and only 19. But yes, I saw how many catchers they drafted. That’s depth.

What’s interesting to me is whether Elias would part with Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser. We tend to set our focus on the farm system, but he could subtract from the major league roster with the number of left-handed hitting outfielders at his disposal.

The counter argument is that Anthony Santander is a pending free agent, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays aren’t guaranteed to be tendered contracts in their final year of arbitration eligibility, and the Orioles might need Kjerstad and Cowser – and perhaps Kyle Stowers – in 2025.

The counter to that one is how the Orioles have their eyes on the 2024 prize, which again explains the Burnes trade. But they’d certainly prefer a starting pitcher in a trade who is controllable beyond this season. Otherwise, the rotation is really thin without Bradish and Wells, and with Means also recovering from elbow surgery and being a free agent to boot.

What else will the second half reveal to us beyond where the team finishes and any Elias trades?

* Which promotions are coming?

Mayo is on the clock. It’s when, not if.

“He’s put himself in a position with his offensive production in Triple-A where he’s kind of ready for the next challenge, and if there was another minor league level above Triple-A, which there isn’t, we’d move him up to that. But the next level is the major leagues, and it’s got to fit into what’s going on in the major leagues because we’re playing games and trying to win the games at the same time,” Elias said during his most recent media session.

“All of that to say, the fact I’m talking about him at a press conference right now, he’s right there, we’re thinking about it, we’re working on it. I’m sure it’s coming very soon.”

Connor Norby has gotten to the majors twice, including 24 hours on the taxi squad, and appeared in only four games. His bat is capable of beating down the door, but the Orioles again would need to figure out how to make room, and to give him ample opportunities at second base rather than have him waste away on the bench.

Chayce McDermott is a possibility for the rotation or bullpen with his 3.70 ERA and 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The 5.4 walks hold him back.

Oh yeah, there’s also Holliday. He’s expected to play for the Orioles again in 2024. And to be the primary second baseman, which further complicates Norby’s situation.

Here’s Elias again, on Mayo and Holliday:

“I think both of those players have a very good chance of contributing heavily to the 2024 Orioles, and I could see them doing it at the same time, too.”

A team with the second-best record in the American League could make significant changes to its roster. The infield on any given night could include two rookies, last year’s American League Rookie of the Year (Henderson), and a player in his first full major league season (Westburg) – if Mayo is playing first base and Ryan Mountcastle is the designated hitter or on the bench.

* When does Danny Coulombe return from the 60-day injured list?

Coulombe is out after undergoing surgery on June 18 to remove bone chips from his elbow. Elias expressed hope that “we'll get him back in the regular season here this year.” He mentioned September as a target month.

Can’t come soon enough.

The bullpen has shown the strain of the rotation’s recent struggles and not having Coulombe in high-leverage situations. He ranked among the most valuable Orioles last season with a 2.81 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 61 appearances and with only four home runs surrendered and 58 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings.

Coulombe made 29 appearances this season and registered a 2.42 ERA and 0.615 WHIP with only three walks and 28 strikeouts over 26 innings. Left-handers hit .171 with a .400 OPS against him and right-handers hit .130 with a .490 OPS. That’s a manager’s dream under the three-batter minimum rule.

The Orioles can recall and select the contracts of a multitude of relievers and no one is filling Coulombe’s spikes.

* Can Henderson become the first Orioles Most Valuable Player since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1991?

Rutschman could jump into the conversation, too, but right now you hear Henderson, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the top three and Bobby Witt Jr. lurking.

Judge widely is viewed as the favorite, with Henderson right behind him.

* Can Henderson break Chris Davis’ club record of 53 home runs set in 2013?

Henderson entered the break with 28 homers. He hit 28 last year as a rookie.

We know he’s gonna blow past his 2023 total as long as he’s healthy, but he's on pace to hit 47.

He's slowed.

* Can Burnes or Rodriguez win 20 games?

Mike Boddicker is the last Orioles pitcher with 20 in 1984. He went 20-11. He had 10 wins at the All-Star break.

Rodriguez is 11-4 and Burnes is 9-4. The veteran has a 2.43 ERA, compared to 3.88 for Rodriguez.

We know which stat is more important.

Pitcher wins hold about as much meaning as Taco Bell food reviews. Who cares? The last American League hurlers to reach the 20 mark are Justin Verlander (21) and Gerrit Cole (20) with the Astros in 2019. The Braves’ Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider won 20 the past two seasons.

Bullpen usage and other matters out of a starter’s control impact win totals. But still, it’s a nice number.

The 2021 Orioles didn’t get close to it. Means and Matt Harvey tied for the team lead with six. Dylan Bundy led the 2018 Orioles with eight, and with 16 losses.

Mike Mussina won 19 in 1995 and 1996 and 18 in 1992 and 1999. Jeff Ballard won 18 in 1989.

* Can Burnes become the first Oriole to win the Cy Young Award since Steve Stone in 1980?

Now that’s a big deal.

Burnes received it with the Brewers in 2021 and also has finished sixth, seventh and eighth in the National League. He started the All-Star Game for the AL on Tuesday, the first Oriole since Stone to be given the honor.

There’s no reason to think that Burnes won’t be in the Cy Young running this year.

Skubal, Crochet, Seth Lugo, Tanner Houck, Ronel Blanco, Logan Gilbert, Tyler Anderson, Erick Fedde, Cole Ragans and Luis Gil are part of the field that could deny Burnes.

* The last World Series MVP for the Orioles was Rick Dempsey in 1983. Frank Robinson won in 1966 and Brooks Robinson in 1970.

Who’s next?