Thanksgiving is four days away, officially kicking off the holiday season. It also may kick off a busier time for the Hot Stove season.

It has been predictably quiet around the league since the World Series ended a month ago. But we’re now two weeks away from the start of the Winter Meetings, with many around the industry already anticipating a busy week in Dallas.

No, that doesn’t mean they think Juan Soto will announce his decision. It’s more that they think some mid-to-upper-level free agents will come off the board and a couple of teams could execute some trades.

Where does that leave the Nationals?

Their free agent needs and targets have been well documented, while the free agent pool grew after Friday’s non-tender deadline. Their farm system is stacked if they wish to acquire major league talent through a trade. But could they go the opposite route and flip a current big leaguer for more prospects to add to their minor league depth?

The 2025 schedule is much kinder to the Orioles, in case you hadn’t perused it. Four days off in April, four in May, three in June, three in July along with the All-Star break, three in August and four in September.

They began the second half by winning two of three games in Texas and were off yesterday. Seems early after the break, but they won’t complain.

The offense remains hot and cold. The Orioles staggered into the break, scored a combined 17 runs in the first two games against the Rangers and were shut out Sunday for seven innings before Anthony Santander’s two-run shot.

Asked about the two-night outburst after the season was paused, co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte said, “I think it’s a chance for guys to take a little bit of breath, like realize how much success we’ve had in the first half. And the recent struggles that we had are a thing of the past and we can come back from that.”

The past tends to bleed into the present. The Orioles went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and stranded 15 Saturday and were 0-for-6 Sunday with seven left on base.

The Orioles that played in Texas over the weekend look more like the Orioles we saw for most of this season and not the Orioles who went 1-5 on their homestand heading into the All-Star break.

Perhaps whatever ailed the team for several days of lackluster baseball is gone forever and more solid play and wins are ahead of us.

What is directly ahead of us – besides the rest of this road trip – is the July 30 trading deadline. And news in recent days that the Orioles have interest in Detroit ace lefty Tarik Skubal.

What we don’t know is if the Tigers would move him under any circumstances or only if they get blown away by a deal.

The Orioles, with their fertile farm, could probably blow away any team with an offer – if they choose to make such a blockbuster deal.

As the Orioles begin the second-half tonight, they take the field in Texas at 58-38 and are leading the AL East by one game over the New York Yankees and 4.5 over the Boston Red Sox.

It looks like the division race could be tight all year and it’s now a three-team, not just a two-team chase.

The O’s .604 win percentage has been dragged down by the 1-5 homestand they finished on Sunday and by going 9-13 since June 21.

On June 20 they were 49-25 and a ½-game out of first in the division, playing .662 ball and on a 107-win pace.

But even in going 9-13 they gained 1.5 games on the Yankees to now lead the division as New York is 7-14 in that time. The O’s are now playing at a 98-win pace.

ARLINGTON, Texas – Time to get back to work.

The All-Star break was more restful to some players than others, but it offered a needed reset for a team that’s 9-13 since leaving the Bronx on a high note.

The Orioles worked out last night at Globe Life Field, where Corbin Burnes, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Jordan Westburg played in the All-Star Game. Burnes is rejoining the club after flying back to his Arizona home that night.

Whether the Orioles repeat as American League East champions is probably the top question hanging in the air. They’d need to experience a monumental collapse to finish outside the playoff field, but yes, it’s a mathematical possibility.

We’ll lump those two together. Do they make the playoffs, and if so, are they atop the division?

The Orioles score 11 runs in the series opener in Houston, allow 14 and lose because of the pitching. They’re held to four runs over the next three games and lose because of the hitting.

Well, mostly. The Astros scored eight runs Sunday to complete the sweep.

The team erupts for eight runs Tuesday night, collecting 16 hits and belting four home runs, and loses 10-8 because of the pitching. That’s how these things work. The arms, bats and gloves can conspire to create skids.

The brakes finally were applied last night, with only two runs allowed and three home runs hit in a 4-2 win.

Some of the rants on social media are aimed at executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias for failing to react after surgeries removed Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells for the rest of the season and reliever Danny Coulombe until perhaps September. Meanwhile, he’s actively searching for pitching. He’s engaged in talks with numerous executives. It just isn’t live-streamed on the internet.

The Orioles losing streak reached five last night with another night of getting a short and ineffective outing from a starting pitcher. Over these five games the Orioles have allowed 40 runs.

With the Orioles and just about every other contending team in the majors in the market for starting pitching, it is natural to think about Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Orioles got an in-person look at the hard-throwing strikeout machine on May 26 at Guaranteed Rate Field. They got two runs off him over six innings, but he fanned 11 Orioles that day.

He looks great – both in person and on the stat sheet. He is under team control through the 2026 season so a team trading for him will have him for this year and two more.

That means the trade price may be extremely high. The O’s may have a farm system where they could be a good trade partner with Chicago. Someone I talked to recently who knows the trade winds better than most, thought the O’s could be in the hunt for Crochet in giving up only one of their top prospects. They would not need two of their premier prospects. But yeah, one big name would likely have to go in a bigger package of players.

If the Orioles are going to add a pitcher that can work in the top half of their rotation and do it without spending a massive amount of dollars, then right-hander Dylan Cease may be a good target.

Cease, who turns 28 on Dec. 28, has two years of team control remaining before free agency and the Chicago White Sox have him on the market. A recent report said the Los Angeles Dodgers and White Sox had talks on Cease.

Cease has had an interesting three-year run of pitching. His ERA+ was 112 in 2021, soared to 180 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022 and was slightly below average at 97 last year.

After going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 2022, he was 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA last year. Over 177 innings he had a 1.418 WHIP, allowing 1.0 homers per nine with 4.0 walks and 10.9 strikeouts.

It has been pointed out that Cease had a better than average .260 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in ’22 but that elevated to .330 last season when he played on a 101-loss team.

A team that won 101 games and posted the best record in the American League isn’t primed for a roster overhaul. Heavy tinkering, if such a thing exists, also seems unlikely based on results, returnees and talent funneling through the pipeline.

What are these Orioles going to do between now and Opening Day?

I’ve heard some people in the industry and some friends of mine insist that changes should be minimal or non-existent because, as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But the Orioles aren’t perfect. They didn’t get a third champagne and beer celebration.

The holes aren’t crater-size, but any chance to upgrade must be done.

Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and James McCann didn't qualify as blockbuster transactions, but they were improvements over Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos. That's the point.

Two years ago today, the Nationals made a surprise acquisition that created a busier Christmas Eve than we were expecting in the D.C. area. General manager Mike Rizzo was able to send two minor league pitchers to the Pirates for All-Star first baseman Josh Bell.

While the timing was surprising, the acquisition itself was not. The Nationals had made the first baseman a potential trade target for a while, with the expectation at the time being he would get a majority of the starts at first while Ryan Zimmerman would be the backup if he returned for his 17th campaign after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Rizzo won praise for the early Christmas present to Nats fans in acquiring a power bat to provide protection for Juan Soto and Trea Turner in the lineup with two years left of team control and without giving up any top prospects. At the time, the Nats’ most coveted prospects were Cade Cavalli, Jackson Rutledge, Carter Kieboom and Yasel Antuna.

Only Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean were required to bring Bell to Washington. At the time, Crowe was 26 years old and the Nats’ No. 4 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and Yean was 19 and the club’s No. 6 prospect.

Crowe had made his major league debut that summer, posting an 11.88 ERA and 2.640 WHIP in 8 ⅓ innings over his three starts. A second-round pick in 2017 out of South Carolina, the right-hander was expected to compete as a rotation depth piece the following spring.

SAN DIEGO – The Orioles will return home from the Winter Meetings on Thursday satisfied with the advancements made in trying to improve their roster. To find another starting pitcher and some left-handed bats.

They just won’t have the bodies to show for it unless something breaks soon.

“I don’t know that we’re any closer to any acquisitions than we were at this time last night or this morning, but a lot of info’s come in, a lot of conversations have taken place,” Elias said during his last media session inside his suite at the Manchester Grand Hyatt.

“We still have a great deal of players out there. This is just really the beginning of the offseason. Whether or not something comes together in the next day or two, I think there’s a lot of information to claim here today.”

Elias said he views these meetings as more of “an information gathering event, first and foremost.” But if there’s an opportunity to make a move for a player, “we’ll get into that competition.” That’s how the Orioles reached an agreement Saturday with starter Kyle Gibson, becoming more aggressive before boarding a flight to San Diego and more bidders began to surface.