Styles clash in matchup of high-end starters

PHOENIX – Tests are never slammed on your desk at a convenient time.

The Orioles offense has been inconsistent and is coming off a one-run, five-hit performance against the Royals. In their win in Kansas City on Saturday, Baltimore put up an eight-spot. In the two losses, however, the Birds combined to plate just three.

Things get much warmer in Arizona, but they don’t get much easier.

The test comes in the form of an ace in sedona red, sonoran sand and teal. And no, not the one that the Diamondbacks signed this offseason. 

This ace is Zac Gallen, a three-time top-10 Cy Young Award finisher that just shut down the prolific Yankees. “Shut down” may be a kind descriptor, as the former Tar Heel tossed 6 ⅔ scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts against the Bronx Bombers.

“Lives on the edges,” noted manager Brandon Hyde. “This series is a test for us from a discipline standpoint. Being able to stay disciplined in our approach, stay disciplined off the edges, to not chase. He can expose us. He’s gonna expose us if we’re chasing.”

Gallen’s life on the edge is some of the most effective in baseball. The righty was sixth in the game with a 45.9 percent edge-of-the-zone rate a season ago. 

And in 2025, he’s setting up hitters out of the zone more often, throwing the ninth-highest percentage of pitches out of the zone in the game. 

On the surface, you could call that a lack of command. But he’s only walked four batters in his first two starts. For Gallen, it’s tactical. The 29-year-old boasts the second-best out-of-zone swing-and-miss percentage in the game at 76 percent. So if hitters chase, they aren’t connecting. 

“We’ve gotta see the ball in the middle part of the plate and not play the game with him,” Hyde said. “He really knows what he's doing and he understands how to set up guys. And if you show a little weakness in being able to expand, it’s going to continue.”

That could be the key against Gallen’s approach: ambushing pitches early in the count.

Gallen ranks in the 97th percentile in baseball in breaking ball run value and 87th percentile in off-speed run value, according to Statcast. His weakness? The fastball, which has a run value in the 5th percentile in the game. 

And when does that fastball come? More often than not, it’s been in 0-0 and 1-0 counts. And after strike one, it’s a heavy dose of knuckle curveballs, changeups and sliders. The Orioles would be wise to avoid seeing those pitches as much as possible. 

Let’s go back to that 2024 edge-of-the-zone percentage leaderboard. As noted, Gallen ranked sixth. And who was fifth? Baltimore’s Zach Eflin.

That’s particularly noteworthy given the diametrically opposed approach of the two starters.

Eflin lives on the edges as well, but lives in the strike zone much more frequently. While Gallen has the ninth-highest percentage of pitches out of the zone, Eflin is down at 117th.

He doesn’t hunt strikeouts like Gallen does. Instead, Eflin challenges hitters in the zone with a deep arsenal of pitches at his disposal. That could be an effective approach against a Diamondbacks lineup that features two hitters in the top five in the game in strikeout percentage.

“He’s a pitch-maker, too, but it’s more in the strike zone and he tries to command the ball in the strike zone a little bit more,” Hyde said. “But he’s unpredictable. Like Gallen, he’s unpredictable and it makes him hard to hit.” 

So tonight, you’ll see two very different pitchers. But they both get outs, all the same. 

Breadcrumbs from the skipper
Albert Suárez was transferred to the 60-day injured list with a grade 2 subscrapularis strain.

“It’s going to be months," said Hyde. "Hopefully just a few months, but it’s really unfortunate news. Thinking about him and hoping he recovers well.”

On the O’s recent lineup construction, Hyde said: “The lefty/righty thing is different. I think hitting in a similar, or somewhat close to similar, spot that you’re used to as an everyday player is beneficial. There’s a lot of teams that don’t do that and there’s some teams that do. Most major-market high-paid teams do. We’re trying to find combinations right now in what works and also match up with the starter.” 

We haven’t heard from Corbin Burnes here in Arizona, and Hyde hasn’t run into him yet, either. The O’s won’t have to face him in this series, according to the projected starters.

“Just looking forward to seeing him,” Hyde said. “But yeah, if he wants to skip our series, I’m perfectly fine with that, too. Corbin’s excellent and we enjoyed having him last year.”