Rest of NL East still has a long way to go to catch up to Nats

No matter what moves they make or don't make this winter, the Nationals are going to enter the 2018 season as the overwhelming favorite to win the National League East again. It's hard to imagine, quite frankly, a scenario in which that wouldn't be the case.

That doesn't mean the Nats are guaranteed to win their third consecutive division title and fifth in seven years. Just ask the 2013 and 2015 clubs about the perils of assuming anything.

But on paper, the Nationals are once again going to be the cream of the crop in the NL East, with four other teams needing some dramatic improvement to get themselves into the conversation. Remember, the Nats won the division by 20 games this year.

And as you look around the rest of the division as things currently stand, there doesn't even appear to be an obvious pick for "Most Likely Contender."

The Mets were supposed to be the biggest challenge in 2017 but completely collapsed and then started trading away key players like Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda. They've still got all the talented starting pitchers that carried them to the division title and NL pennant in 2015, but Jacob deGrom is the only one who has shown an ability to stay healthy and consistently pitch well. Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler combined to make only 55 starts this season.

New York does have some money to spend this winter, and general manager Sandy Alderson could make some bold moves to improve his lineup and add some pitching depth. But as was the case this year, a whole lot of things have to go right for the Mets to win in 2018, and that may be too much to ask from this group.

The Marlins finished in second place this season, a full 20 games back, and they may be on the verge of a complete teardown now that Derek Jeter has taken over the front office. Jeter has been somewhat cryptic about his plan, but it's no secret Miami is shopping Giancarlo Stanton around. The Cardinals and the Giants appear to the frontrunners for now to acquire the reigning NL MVP, but any trade is going to be complicated both because of the hefty return of prospects necessary to pull this off and Stanton's massive contract (albeit one that allows the slugger to opt out in three years if he wants).

The Marlins also could trade away other key members of their lineup as Jeter seeks to trim payroll and start building for the long term. They already suffer from a lack of pitching depth, and given the unlikelihood they're going to adding any significant pieces this winter, it's hard to see this team entering 2018 better than they ended 2017.

The division's two other clubs both are several years into full-scale rebuilding projects. The question is whether either is anywhere close to being ready to win. There are reasons to think the answer is no.

The Braves actually looked like they might be getting there, but much of the young talent they acquired has yet to make a positive impact. Former No. 1 draft pick Dansby Swanson is at the top of that disappointing list, having produced a paltry .636 OPS this season.

The biggest bombshell, though, has come since the season ended, with general manager John Coppolella fired and then banned for life by Major League Baseball for major violations of the league's international signing rules. Not only is Coppolella now on an ignominious list that includes the likes of Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, but the organization was forced to give up 12 prospects that were signed illegally, some of them elite prospects.

New GM Alex Anthopolous has some major work to do to right this ship. Yes, there's some talent in place, but there's still a lot that needs to be fixed before Atlanta is ready to seriously contend again.

And then there are the Phillies, who have avoided major controversy as they've begun their rebuild, but have yet to see much of anything positive on the field. There were glimmers of hope as the 2017 season wound down; the club went 37-38 after the All-Star break, Rhys Hoskins hit 18 homers in only 212 plate appearances and Aaron Nola looks like a long-term rotation anchor.

But this is a franchise that appears to be setting its sights on next winter, when it will have a ton of money to spend on a blockbuster free agent class that could be headed by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. There's still an intermediate step that has to be taken between now and then.

All of which leaves the Nationals in a familiar position. Their goals may be far loftier than another division title. But for the sixth year in a row, they're going to be expected to win the NL East from the outset.