Rotation candidates embrace spring competition

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – By any reasonable measure, DJ Herz’s 2024 season was a success. The young left-hander pitched well enough in 10 starts at Triple-A Rochester to earn a promotion. And then he pitched well enough in 19 starts with the Nationals (4.16 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 106 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings) to feel like he had established his big league credentials.

That should guarantee Herz a spot in the Nats’ Opening Day rotation this season, right? Not at all.

When the team signed two major league veteran free agents (Michael Soroka, Trevor Williams) as well as an established Japanese pitcher (Shinnosuke Ogasawara), the 2025 rotation suddenly looked overcrowded. At least two, maybe all three, of those guys are going to make the rotation. And MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin are locks, given their performances the last two seasons and high ceilings for success.

That could leave both Herz and fellow young lefty Mitchell Parker on the outside looking in. Not that they’re bothered by it.

“I feel like we only got stronger,” Herz said of the Nationals’ offseason additions. “For me, I love the competition. I don’t like feeling comfortable or complacent. I like the feeling of: I’ve got to compete and go win a spot. I think it makes me a better player. I’m excited to be with them.”

Rarely have the Nats been in this position, even in their best years from the previous decade. They have at least seven, maybe more, qualified candidates for rotation jobs and only five spots to fill come the end of March.

“We’ve got the deepest group that we’ve ever had at the high-minor league and major league level, which is a credit to the way we built this thing,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “And we’ve got a good young core of guys already in camp. We’ve sprinkled in some veterans. We’ve taken some chances on players that we think have a great chance of rebounding to become a force for us. So, we feel really good about where we are.”

The Nationals knew entering the offseason they wanted to bolster their rotation, if nothing else adding an experienced starter to take over for the departed Patrick Corbin. When they signed Soroka in mid-December for $9 million, they appeared to have addressed that vacancy.

Williams, though, still believed there would be an opportunity to rejoin the Nats after becoming a free agent at season’s end. The veteran right-hander, who went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 13 starts sandwiched around a lengthy stint on the injured list, got his wish and re-signed for two years and $14 million shortly before New Year’s Day.

“They were very open the whole time,” Williams said, “that they were going to sign a guy, but they still wanted me.”

Then, just when it seemed like they were set with starters, the Nationals surprised everyone by jumping into the Asian market for the first time in club history, signing Ogasawara to an admittedly modest, two-year, $3.5 million deal in late January.

And then don’t forget Cade Cavalli, who is still attempting to return two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and Josiah Gray, who hopes to be ready to return from his elbow ligament replacement before season’s end.

“I love our depth,” manager Davey Martinez said. “We’ve got quite a few guys who can help us in that rotation, which is awesome. Moving forward, I think we’re going to be in good shape.”

How will the Nats decide who makes it onto the Opening Day rotation? Martinez said everyone will get a chance to pitch with a starter’s workload this spring, even if it means some have to pitch on back fields in minor league games. When the end of camp draws near, they’ll start talking more seriously about roles.

“We’ll have some tough decisions to make at the end of camp, but all of these guys are going to get an opportunity to pitch,” Martinez said. “The starters are going to get a chance to start. We can do a lot of different things as we’ve done in the past, as far as utilizing our minor league (camp) as well. But they’re all going to get their innings in. The biggest thing is to build them up and get ready for the season.”

Who gets left out come Opening Day? Based on their guaranteed contracts, Soroka and Williams would seem to have a leg up for two rotation spots behind Gore and Irvin. Then it comes down to Ogasawara, Herz and Parker for one remaining spot.

All three lefties do have options, so any could be sent to Triple-A Rochester to begin the season. What about the bullpen? While it remains a possibility, it appears it’s not the organization’s preference to ask a starter to pitch in long relief.

“You know me, I love starting pitching,” Rizzo said. “Starters are what we’re looking for. So I want to keep as many starting pitching prospects and candidates as possible. Is it possible to keep a starting pitcher in the big league bullpen, but keep him stretched out? That’s a possibility that we’ll discuss if the need arises. But I think we want to keep all these pitchers stretched out. Because even though we’ve done as good a job as anybody of keeping our starters healthy, you need a lot of starting pitchers to go through a season.”

And if one or two of these pitchers are left without a chair to sit on when the music stops? They insist they’ll focus on the bigger picture, worrying less about their own status than the overall quality of the Nationals’ pitching staff.

“The good teams use more than five starters every year,” Williams said. “Last year, when the guys’ names were called on, they did a tremendous job. When Mitch got his name called, he made the most of the opportunity. And when DJ had his name called, he made the most of his opportunity. We all have the same common goal, no matter how we get there.”