Ryan Romano: Digging into Kevin Gausman's clutch season

For a few years now, Chris Tillman has carried the title of Orioles ace, but someone else might have taken his throne. After his third straight shutout start, Kevin Gausman has lowered his season ERA to 3.58, the best mark among Baltimore starters. He has the peripherals to back that up, too - his FIP and xFIP both lead the team, as well. Although it took him some time to arrive at this point, the 25-year-old righty has finally broken out, and his ability to perform under pressure has facilitated that explosion.

Does that last sentence ring a little hollow to you? One of the core principles of sabermetrics is context neutrality - the idea that "clutch" play doesn't exist, that every player does the same regardless of the situation. For hitters, a plethora of evidence bears this out; for pitchers, however, it's not as clear. I've written here before about some O's who have pitched better with runners on base, and Gausman has outdone both of them. In his case, he's established a distinctly different crunch time strategy, which has gotten him out of jam after jam and will likely continue to do so.

Let's start with the basic numbers. The bases-empty version of Gausman has struggled to retire hitters, who have a .298/.358/.519 line off him. By contrast, the runners-on version has excelled, holding opponents to a .205/.250/.325 triple-slash. This dominance extends to every area imaginable. With the bases empty, Gausman has the 38th-highest strikeout rate (22.4 percent) and the 69th-best walk rate (8.2 percent) among qualified pitchers. With men on, those figures improve to 26.2 percent and 4.2 percent, which rank 10th and fourth, respectively. His BABIP falls by nearly 100 points after someone has reached, and his home run rate plummets from 4.5 percent to 2.7 percent. In short: Gausman puts a fair amount of people on base, then locks down once they're there.

What has Gausman done differently with runners on base? First and foremost, he's leaned on his two best pitches - his four-seam fastball and splitter - far more often. He's thrown the heater 57.7 percent of the time with the bases empty, and 65.5 percent of the time with men aboard; meanwhile, his splitter usage has increased from 20.6 percent to 22.3 percent. Those have taken the place of his mediocre two-seamer and horrid slider, which make up 21.8 percent of his pitches from the windup and 12.2 percent from the stretch. Unsurprisingly, that switch has been a fruitful one.

Nor do the changes stop there. Gausman has changed his fastball location with runners on base - he's put it in the upper five sections of the strike zone 37.9 percent of the time, compared to 26.9 percent with the bases empty. Last year, Gausman started to elevate his four-seamer; this year, he's relied on that placement more selectively, as a way to challenge adversaries in times of need. And he's paired that high heat with a whole lot of splitters in the dirt. He's plopped the sinker in the lowest two sections of the strike zone 72.6 percent of the time when no one's on, and 83.2 percent of the time when that's no longer the case. This one-two punch, appearing more often and to a greater extent, has allowed Gausman to blow past opponents with runners on behind him.

If this formula works so well for Gausman with runners on, why doesn't he employ it when the sacks are empty? Beats me - maybe the excess splitters put strain on his arm or maybe he just doesn't want to become too predictable. Whatever the reason, it's paid off: He's worked his way to the fourth-highest strand rate in baseball at 81.9 percent. Gausman can't prevent stolen bases like Tillman can, but he does beat his teammate when it comes to leaving runners on base. That's helped him to become, for now and perhaps for the future, the best starter on the Orioles.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.