Sizing up the Orioles after 38 games

As the Orioles move toward the quarter pole of this season, they are 20-18 and in first place in the American League East. The bottom line is that just about any fan would have taken that - first place after 38 games going into the season. But how they got there is the interesting part. The Orioles offense is underperforming and their rotation has been inconsistent. They've dealt with injuries and they currently have a rather unsettled closer situation. Being in first place right now is a good thing, but it is also a function of a very mediocre AL East so far. Didn't see it coming, but Toronto is the only club in the division that has not been outscored on the season. In run differential, the East is the worst division in baseball. Yeah, didn't see that one coming at all. Will one or more teams in the East soon take off? You have to figure yes, but which team and when? The Orioles only have 13 quality starts, but the rotation may have actually improved in recent weeks. After Ubaldo Jimenez pitched seven scoreless innings Tuesday, the O's rotation ERA of 4.12 was the best it had been since the second game of the season and well above last season's 4.45 mark. Four pitchers right now - Jimenez, Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen - all have ERAs between 3.95 and 4.02. If that holds true for most of this year, the rotation might be good enough. The O's offense has been disappointing. The Orioles rank 14th in the AL in runs scored. Yikes, 14th. They were fourth last year. They rank ninth in homers and they were first last year. They rank 13th in team OBP and they were 10th last year. Here are a few players and their OPS stats from 2013 to 2014: * Chris Davis - 1.004 and .723 * Adam Jones - .811 and .721 * J.J. Hardy - .738 and .580 * Manny Machado - .746 and .485 These are four key core players. If and when the O's offense takes a turn for the better, one or all four will likely have had a lot to do with it. By the way, all four are very likely to improve that stat on the right, so that is the good news. The point has been made that the O's haven't had their real starting lineup together at any point. But what if that never does happen? It's been a strange season. It wasn't that long ago that Zach Britton was considered a struggling pitcher and now some want him to either start or close. It wasn't that long ago that we were wondering if Tillman was an ace and now there is some concern about him. The Orioles are 13-8 against the AL East and 7-10 against everyone else. Maybe that is telling and means the East is truly down. Maybe it will stay that way. For me, one of the fun things about a baseball season is seeing storylines play out over the long grind of the year. As we head to the 40-game mark, the Orioles are in first place. But they have the worst first-place record in baseball. Not many questions have been answered, but finding out which way this is going to go should be fascinating over the next 124 games.