As the Orioles look to cut down on their mounting strikeout totals, perhaps the thing they can rely on most of all is track record. Several of their players that are striking out a lot right now show strikeout rates more in line with league average or less, both recently and over their careers.
That can provide some hope for a club that has fanned 10 or more times in six consecutive games and 13 or more times in a new major league-record five straight games. After they struck out seven times opening day at Boston, the K totals have gone this way from Game 2 through Game 7: 11, 15, 13, 14, 17 and 14 in the home opener.
Here are the major league leaders in team strikeout rate to this point:
34.3 - Orioles
31.6 - Milwaukee
30.0 - Atlanta
29.5 - St. Louis
In 2020, the Orioles were 19th in strikeout rate, meaning 18 of 30 clubs fanned more frequently than the O's rate of 22.9. In the full season of 2019 they were 16th at 23.2.
At this early stage, the Orioles also lead the majors in chasing pitches, swinging at 34 percent of pitches they see that are outside of the strike zone. Boston is third at 34.9. The O's rank third-to-last in hard-hit percentage at 27.2.
So yes, not a great combo. Too many strikeouts and too few balls that are hard-hit.
So yes, plenty of room for improvement for a club that scored 18 runs in Boston but has scored nine runs on 20 hits over the last four games.
This is where track record comes into play.
Here is a partial list of some regulars, posting first their current strikeout rate, then last year's rate and then their career rates. In the case of Trey Mancini, we posted his 2019 strikeout rate, as he didn't play last year.
Rio Ruiz: 40.0 currently, 22.5 last year, 22.9 for career
Ryan Mountcastle: 36.7, 21.4, 23.1
Trey Mancini: 35.5, 21.1, 23.1
Freddy Galvis: 34.5, 18.9, 20.3.
Anthony Santander: 33.3, 15.2, 20.2
So most, if not all, of these players have the strikeouts way up in this small sample of the seven games we've seen. And of course, the frequency of strikeouts can be expected to level off as they play more games. It will need to. We know that for sure.
The American League average strikeout rate in the shortened 2020 season was 21.8. In their most recent seasons, four of the five players listed here were under that number.
While the Orioles are at the top of the majors right now in swinging strikes (swings and misses), they are near the bottom in called strikes. Maybe an indication they need to be more selective. But also that pitchers will throw fewer strikes to you if you prove you will swing at balls. A big league pitcher is trained to go strike-to-ball with the pitch if a hitter will chase. Throw a pitch that appears headed for a strike for most of 60 feet, six inches, but ultimately is out of the zone.
O's pitchers tonight will not have to face Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, who has been an O's killer in the four games they've played this year. Martinez, per Boston reporters, is going to miss tonight's game with cold symptoms and is awaiting the results of COVID-19 testing. So far this season he is 8-for-17 against Baltimore pitching with four doubles, a homer, four RBIs and an OPS of 1.353.
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