So how long will this rebuilding take?

By Steve Melewski

Orioles

November 08, 2019, 4:01pm

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The topic came up again during yesterday's Orioles Q&A session on this blog: How long will this rebuild take?

The fans want to know.

That is a very reasonable question, but it just doesn't have an answer. You can guess, but that's really all you will be doing. No one knows for sure, including general manager Mike Elias, who is heading up this rebuilding, how long it will take to work or even if it will work.

This is the American League East, home of two big spenders, one sharp cookie and one team with a lot of young talent that has a whole country to back its efforts. Piece of cake, right?

Starting in 2011, the Houston Astros won 56, 55, 51, 70, 86, 84, 101, 103 and 107 games. Over the last five years, all winning seasons, Houston has averaged 96.2 wins and won the 2017 World Series. They lost in Game 7 this year. But they've been to the playoffs four times in the last five years. The Orioles strive for such consistent contention and brought some of Houston's staff here to try and make it happen.

Starting in 2012, the Chicago Cubs won 61, 66, 73, 97, 103, 92, 95 and 84 games. They parted with manager Joe Maddon at the end of the 2019 season. They went to the playoffs every year from 2015-2018 and won the World Series in 2016.

Houston saw win jumps from year to year of 19 and 16. They gained 35 wins over the course of two seasons. The Cubs gained 24 wins between seasons on their way up.

The Orioles have won 47 and 54 games the last two seasons. So what comes next? Another 100-loss year, which seems quite possible, or can the club make the move toward 75 or 80 wins to make it more interesting sooner than hoped and expected?

One common theme among a segment of fans in recent months has been that, while they understand the rebuilding, they want to see a team that can win more next year. Are there moves the Orioles should look into to make that happen? Can they strive to put out a better product (more wins) in 2020 while staying true to the long-range rebuild plan? Or would that be a mistake?

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