Spring storylines: Battle for rotation spots

During the early parts of this offseason, the Nationals were in search of starting pitchers. It didn’t need to be filled right then and there, but the front office brass left December’s Winter Meetings in Dallas without any additions to the major league roster except for Rule 5 Draft pick Evan Reifert.

Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams became free agents at the end of last season. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz, while impressive in their respective rookie seasons, weren’t sure things to stay in the big league rotation in 2025.

Josiah Gray is expected to miss most of this year while recovering from his Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure. Cade Cavalli still needs to prove he can pitch every five days in the majors while working his way back from his own Tommy John surgery.

MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin were the only sure things in the Nats rotation heading into the new season.

But then a week after returning home from Dallas, the Nats signed right-hander Michael Soroka to a modest one-year, $9 million contract. On New Year’s Eve, they brought back Williams on a new two-year, $14 million deal. And in January, they signed left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year, $3.5 million contract, the first ever given by the club to a player directly from Asia.

All of a sudden, the Nats went from not having enough starting pitchers to not having enough open rotation spots. As general manager Mike Rizzo always says, you can’t have enough starting pitching.

So which five will break camp with the team?

With Corbin gone and Gray injured, the Opening Day assignment figures to be Gore’s to lose. While dominant at times with ace-caliber stuff, the soon-to-be 26-year-old lefty needs to show the Nats he can be consistent.

If he’s not, Irvin could push Gore for the top spot in the rotation. At times during the first half of last season, Irvin was the Nats’ best pitcher. He pitched at an All-Star level into July before getting worn down in the second half of his first full major league season. At the very least, the soon-to-be 28-year-old will be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

Soroka will likely join Gore and Irvin in the rotation’s top three spots. He may even push for the No. 1 or No. 2 spots. The 27-year-old was an All-Star and National League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 29 starts with the Braves. But he only made three starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and missed the next two years due to injury. Can he rediscover his form from a dominant rookie season and be one of the better starters on this team?

Which version of Williams will the Nats get this year? Will he be more like the guy who struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his return as a full-time starter in 2023? Or will he be more like the guy who was one of the league’s best pitchers before getting hurt in 2024? If it’s the latter version, the 32-year-old right-hander will be a good option in the back end of the rotation.

How will Ogasawara adjust to the major leagues? He was a solid starter and one-time All-Star over his nine seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Although the 27-year-old still can be optioned down to the minor leagues, the Nats gave him a multi-year deal out of Japan to have a shot at the big league rotation.

That’s already five starters right there. But Parker, 25, and Herz, 24, will get their own opportunities to compete for spots, too. Both lefties showed a lot of upside in 2024, but they’ll need to be really good and very consistent to crack the Opening Day rotation. The Nats’ ability to option both of them down to the minors may also hurt their chances.

And Cavalli remains a great unknown. After making his major league debut in 2022 and needing Tommy John in spring 2023, the 26-year-old has only made three professional appearances since, all three at the High-A level or lower. The Nats would love for their former first-round pick to compete for a spot in the major league rotation in 2025, but he more than likely needs time to develop at Triple-A after he proves he’s fully healthy in camp.

The Nationals expect Gray back at some point late in the season, which will create more questions about who fills out the rotation. But as spring training starts tomorrow with pitchers and catchers reporting to West Palm Beach, it seems there are at least five pitchers competing for three open spots.

As one of the stacked positions on the roster, the rotation battle should be one of the most exciting ones to watch this spring.